Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
254 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2005

.UPDATE...
WILL SEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 419 WITH REGULAR ZONE
ISSUANCE.  EDDY...LEA...GAINES...AND ANDREWS COUNTIES ARE IN THE
WATCH AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2005/

SHORT TERM...
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE EVENING ALREADY BEGINNING AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY FIRING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SACRAMENTO AND
DAVIS MOUNTAINS. THE DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE JUST EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACKED TO THE EASTERN SLOPES.
CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST SOME STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE.
WILL TAKE CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST INTO THE REST OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER AND STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES EJECT INTO THE REGION. WILL MENTION SEVERE WORDING
EVERYWHERE. ETA WINDS AND DEW POINTS LOOK REASONABLE OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...
UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
AND AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING...THEN PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
SEABOARD.  THIS PORTENDS AN ALMOST CONTINUAL PARADE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO TRANSLATE OVER THE CWA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

NOT EXPECTING THE DRYLINE TO MIX TOO FAR EASTWARD ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL WINDS VEER TO NO BETTER THAN SOUTHWESTERLY...
AND MOIST GROUNDS FROM RECENT RAINFALL WILL INHIBIT IT/S PROGRESS.
SINCE WE/LL STILL HAVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...SEMI PERMANENT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...
WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A NOT
EASILY DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS INDICATE THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...AND THE NOSE OF A 65 KT H25 JETLET...NOSING INTO THE
WESTERN CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  THINK WE/LL SEE TSRA DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO THERE APPROACH...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LAST THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF THE EVENING BEFORE DWINDLING.

EXPECT THE SAME SCENARIO BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EXCEPT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AS MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE A
LITTLE AND AID PROPAGATION OF THE DRYLINE TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CWA.  SOME STORMS ON BOTH DAYS WILL BE SEVERE AS THE ABOVE
PARAMETERS CHANGE LITTLE.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS EACH DAY.  THIS PROCESS WILL REPEAT AGAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST OF THE AREA.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING EXPECTED.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

12/67

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-071903-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
230 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2005 (130 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2005)

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.
SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOOD WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT (LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
555 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 PM     HAIL             10 NW PECOS             31.51N 103.62W
06/06/2005  1.75 INCH        REEVES             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0500 PM     HAIL             8 N PECOS               31.53N 103.50W
06/06/2005  2.50 INCH        WARD               TX   PUBLIC

            TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED ALONG FARM TO MARKET ROAD
            2119. DAMAGING HAIL LASTED UNTIL 530 PM.

0512 PM     HAIL             6 N PECOS               31.50N 103.50W
06/06/2005  0.75 INCH        REEVES             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0525 PM     HAIL             8 N MENTONE             31.83N 103.60W
06/06/2005  0.75 INCH        LOVING             TX   PUBLIC

0535 PM     HAIL             RED BLUFF               31.90N 103.92W
06/06/2005  1.75 INCH        REEVES             TX   PUBLIC

0541 PM     HAIL             LAJITAS                 29.26N 103.77W
06/06/2005  0.88 INCH        BREWSTER           TX   PUBLIC

&&

SN