Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WWUS54 KMAF 061955
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
253 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2005

TXC389-062045-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0157.000000T0000Z-050606T2045Z/
REEVES-
253 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL REEVES COUNTY...

AT 247 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO GOLF BALL 
SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF 
BALMORHEA...JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
INTERSTATE 10 JUST EAST OF BALMORHEA IN SOUTHERN REEVES COUNTY...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3099 10388 3079 10359 3106 10332 3128 10365

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2005

.SHORT TERM...
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE EVENING ALREADY BEGINNING AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY FIRING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SACRAMENTO AND
DAVIS MOUNTAINS. THE DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE JUST EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACKED TO THE EASTERN SLOPES.
CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST SOME STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE.
WILL TAKE CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST INTO THE REST OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER AND STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES EJECT INTO THE REGION. WILL MENTION SEVERE WORDING
EVERYWHERE. ETA WINDS AND DEW POINTS LOOK REASONABLE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
AND AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING...THEN PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
SEABOARD.  THIS PORTENDS AN ALMOST CONTINUAL PARADE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO TRANSLATE OVER THE CWA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

NOT EXPECTING THE DRYLINE TO MIX TOO FAR EASTWARD ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL WINDS VEER TO NO BETTER THAN SOUTHWESTERLY...
AND MOIST GROUNDS FROM RECENT RAINFALL WILL INHIBIT IT/S PROGRESS.
SINCE WE/LL STILL HAVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...SEMI PERMANENT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...
WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A NOT
EASILY DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS INDICATE THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...AND THE NOSE OF A 65 KT H25 JETLET...NOSING INTO THE
WESTERN CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  THINK WE/LL SEE TSRA DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO THERE APPROACH...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LAST THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF THE EVENING BEFORE DWINDLING.

EXPECT THE SAME SCENARIO BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EXCEPT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AS MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE A
LITTLE AND AID PROPAGATION OF THE DRYLINE TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CWA.  SOME STORMS ON BOTH DAYS WILL BE SEVERE AS THE ABOVE
PARAMETERS CHANGE LITTLE.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS EACH DAY.  THIS PROCESS WILL REPEAT AGAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST OF THE AREA.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              70  94  71  97 /  30   0  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                65 100  67 100 /  20   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  66  95  74  96 /  30   0  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           70  98  72  99 /  30  30  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  93  65  92 /  20   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   67  98  66  99 /  20   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   57  92  56  92 /  30  20  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    68  94  72  98 /  30  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  69  96  72 100 /  30  20  20   0
WINK TX                    68 103  72 104 /  30  20  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

12/67

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-071903-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
230 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2005 (130 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2005)

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.
SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOOD WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT (LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1231 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     TORNADO          LAKE J.B. THOMAS        32.59N 101.25W
06/05/2005                   BORDEN             TX   AIRPLANE PILOT

            TORNADO ON GROUND NEAR LAKE J.B. THOMAS.

0650 PM     TORNADO          2 W LAKE J.B. THOMAS    32.59N 101.29W
06/05/2005                   BORDEN             TX   PUBLIC

            TORNADO ON GROUND 2 TO 3 MILES WEST OF LAKE J.B. THOMAS.

0730 PM     HAIL             7 SE ALPINE             30.29N 103.58W
06/05/2005  0.88 INCH        BREWSTER           TX   PUBLIC

0735 PM     TORNADO          16 SE GAIL              32.61N 101.26W
06/05/2005                   BORDEN             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

0735 PM     TORNADO          7 SW LAKE J.B. THOMAS   32.51N 101.34W
06/05/2005                   HOWARD             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

0830 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W VEALMOOR            32.51N 101.59W
06/05/2005  70 MPH           HOWARD             TX   PUBLIC

            FARMER REPORTED ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS OF 70 TO 80 MPH
            ALONG THE HOWARD/BORDEN COUNTY LINE.

0830 PM     HAIL             1 W VEALMOOR            32.51N 101.59W
06/05/2005  0.75 INCH        HOWARD             TX   PUBLIC

            ALONG BORDEN/HOWARD COUNTY LINE.

0945 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LAMESA                  32.73N 101.96W
06/05/2005                   DAWSON             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MINOR STREET FLOODING IN LAMESA

1000 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GAIL                    32.77N 101.45W
06/05/2005                   BORDEN             TX   PUBLIC

            COUNTY JUDGES OFFICE REPORTED ROOF DAMAGE DUE TO WIND,
            SMALL OUTBUILDINGS OVERTURNED, TREE LIMBS BROKEN.

1005 PM     HAIL             1 S ACKERLY             32.51N 101.72W
06/05/2005  0.88 INCH        MARTIN             TX   PUBLIC

            PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED 1 MILE SOUTH OF
            ACKERLY.

1005 PM     HAIL             ACKERLY                 32.52N 101.72W
06/05/2005  0.88 INCH        DAWSON             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

1015 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ACKERLY                 32.52N 101.72W
06/05/2005                   DAWSON             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLOODING OCCURRING IN ACKERLY.

&&

74

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1241 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W FLUVANNA            32.89N 101.24W
06/05/2005                   BORDEN             TX   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            BROKE LIMBS OFF TREES. OFFICIAL ESTIMATED SPEED TO BE
            GREATER THAN 60 MPH.

&&

74