Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
444 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2005

.UPDATE...
WILL SEND AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 408...WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2005/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP REGION UNSETTLED AS
FAR AS STORM DEVELOPMENT.  MODELS PICK UP ON A NUMBER OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CAN EXPECT A FEW IMPULSES
TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA.

AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERED THE AREA THIS MORNING
HAS BEGUN RETREATING.  BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
BELIEVE FRONT LOCATED JUST NORTH OF CWA ACROSS SOUTH PLAINS AND
SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD.  FRONT MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
LATER TODAY.

SPC FOCUSING ON STRONG HEATING... PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.  A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD AND NOW JUST
TOUCHES THE NORTHERN BOUNDARIES OF THE CWA.

AS OF 1 PM THE DRYLINE STILL LOCATED WEST OF A HOBBS TO PECOS LINE.
MODELS DO NOT BRING DRYLINE EAST OF LEA COUNTY AND QUICKLY MOVE IT
BACK WEST AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
3-4000 JOULES EAST OF THE DRYLINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES.  HAVE
INHERITED MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS NORTHEAST AND WILL LEAVE IN
ZONES/GRIDS EVEN THOUGH SLIGHT RISK NO LONGER COVERS THAT AREA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MCS OVERNIGHT BUT DISAGREE ON LOCATION...
AVN HAS IT TRACKING EAST OF AREA... WHILE ETA DEVELOPS HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN CWA.  CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD HEAVY RAIN BEING TO
THE EAST BUT HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH JUST
IN CASE.  HAVE ALSO PUSHED ISOLATED POPS BACK TO NEAR A CARLSBAD TO
MARFA LINE BASED ON SLOW PROGRESSION OF DRYLINE AND DEVELOPING CU
FIELD ACROSS BIG BEND.

LONG TERM...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WESTERN TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL THIS
WEEK. BEST AREAL COVERAGE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
APPEARS TO BE MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION AND
BACKS THE FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE
DRYLINE WILL MIX FURTHER EAST EACH DAY WITH CORRESPONDING POPS
SHIFTING EASTWARD AND CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW VEERS SOME. BY THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY THE FLOW BACKS AGAIN ALOFT WITH MOISTURE SHIFTING WESTWARD
AGAIN. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE PERTAINING
TO THE EVOLVING WESTERN TROUGH...OVERALL KEPT THE 10-20 POPS AT THIS
TIME EXCEPT THE FAR WEST WITH THE DRYLINE.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
152 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-061852-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
152 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2005 (1252 PM MDT SUN JUN 5 2005)

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PERMIAN BASIN.  ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME SEVERE.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...
ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THIS WEEK.  ALTHOUGH A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED... A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS EAST OF A CARLSBAD TO MARFA LINE...
ESPECIALLY THOSE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN... SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION AND BE PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT (LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND