Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
255 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS WEAKENED AND RETROGRADED TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.  A WEAK SHEAR AXIS IS SITUATED ACROSS
THE CWA.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
PW/S APPROACHING 2 INCHES WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND FLOODING WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.  THEREFORE WE
HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA THAT
WILL RUN FROM 1 AM TONIGHT UNTIL 1 PM WEDNESDAY.

STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WITH CHANNELING
THROUGH THE GUADALUPE PASS...WINDS COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA.  SO
HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS FROM 1
AM TONIGHT THROUGH 1 PM WEDNESDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER TONIGHT DUE TO THE COLD
FRONT AND WET BULB COOLING FROM THE RAIN.  MOST READINGS WILL BE IN
THE 60S WITH A FEW 50S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...
26/12Z SURFACE OBS REVEALED THE ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT WAS ALONG A
KCVN TO KHHF LINE. THIS POSITION IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE
25/12Z MODELS INDICATED. CONVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH 26/12Z 850MB NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
20-30KT RANGE LIKELY HELPED THE FRONT PUSH SOUTH FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED.

HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG WITH
SOUTHERLY 850MB WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PWAT/S INCREASING INTO THE 1.5-2 RANGE ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3
OF THE REGION. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS INITIALLY EXPECTED TO
BE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION TOMORROW
MORNING... THEN GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH INTO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND
BIG BEND REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE AMOUNT OF
ANTICIPATED CONVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY... WE EXPECT
THE FRONT TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND POSITIVE 850MB LI/S BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT... LOWER POPS ARE WARRANTED BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW... WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY
COOL 700MB TEMPERATURES. A STRENGTHENING 500MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
U.S. PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW POPS
WILL BE RESTRICTED PRIMARILY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              64  77  64  83 /  80  70  40  10
CARLSBAD NM                66  75  61  85 /  80  60  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  71  88  68  88 /  60  50  50  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           66  79  67  84 /  70  60  60  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          60  70  60  74 /  80  70  40  20
HOBBS NM                   66  74  61  85 /  80  60  20  10
MARFA TX                   63  75  58  81 /  70  60  60  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    66  77  66  83 /  80  80  50  10
ODESSA TX                  66  78  65  84 /  80  80  50  10
WINK TX                    68  82  64  87 /  80  80  50  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
      FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY
      PLAINS...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA
      COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.
      HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
      FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONE...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY
      COUNTY.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
      FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...ANDREWS...BORDEN...CRANE...
      DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE
      MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...
      MITCHELL...PECOS...REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS
      PECOS...SCURRY...UPTON...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
      CORRIDOR...WARD...AND WINKLER.
      HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
      FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONE...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

&&

54/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
232 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-271932-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
232 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005 (132 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2005)

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TONIGHT.  THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A
MOIST AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO DURING THE EVENING.  AFTER MIDNIGHT THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN...UPPER TRANS
PECOS AND THE STOCKTON PLATEAU.  THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL ALSO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS OVER
THE AREA.  THESE WINDS WILL BE CHANNELED THROUGH THE GUADALUPE
PASS WHERE WIND SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED.  THEREFORE... A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE GUADALUPE PASS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.  THE
COMBINATION OF A MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING. INITIALLY... THE FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESIDE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN...UPPER TRANS
PECOS AND INTO THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE BIG BEND AND LOWER TRANS PECOS
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THOUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT (LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND