Flash Flood Warning 131, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 052304
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
559 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2005

NMC015-060030-
EDDY-
459 PM MDT MON SEP 5 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN EDDY COUNTY...

NO RECENT INFORMATION HAS BEEN RECEIVED FROM SOUTHWEST EDDY COUNTY 
HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY THAT WATER CONTINUES TO RUN THROUGH ROBINSON 
DRAW SOUTH AND EAST OF QUEEN. WATER MAY BE FLOWING ACROSS RURAL LOW 
WATER CROSSINGS SOUTH THROUGH EAST OF QUEEN TO DARK CANYON. RADAR 
INDICATES ONLY SHOWERS IN THE AREA...HOWEVER THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE 
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING OF ARROYOS... 
DRAWS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS.  DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO 
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO 
GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. MOST FLOODING DEATHS ARE 
PREVENTABLE. TURN AROUND... DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3201 10483 3203 10448 3213 10443 3231 10430
      3242 10470 3218 10483

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
226 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2005

.SHORT TERM...
FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING GRIDS TONIGHT. WILL RETAIN
THE HIGHEST POPS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS TO THE EAST PER GFS TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. BEEFED UP THE QPF GRIDS AND ADDED MENTION
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS THIS EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE EVENING AND NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
ABUNDANT LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THIS RIDGE
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TUESDAY. AN
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL TRANSLATE WEST BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE THIS TROUGH WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
MEXICO...THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN ADVECTING DRIER MID TROPOSPERIC
AIR NOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WEST ACOSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY...WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER WESTERN
NOAM LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE...WHICH IN TURN WILL STRENGTHEN THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SEEMS REASONABLE. THICKNESSES
WILL RISE A BIT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THIS ALONG WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO A TOUCH
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL SLIGHTLY THIS
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE.

THE GFS DOES APPEAR TO BE LOSING ITS WARM BIAS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...HOWEVER...MINT GRIDS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS REFLECT
A BLEND OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MOS AND PERSISTENCE. A BLEND OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ENSEMBLE GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD FOR
MAXT GRIDS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...WE DID INCREASE POPS TOWARD THE
WEEKEND. LASTLY...WIND AND DEWPOINT GRIDS REPRESENT A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERED BY LOCAL EFFECTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              69  89  68  91 /  30   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                67  86  64  89 /  50  30  30  20
DRYDEN TX                  71  92  71  90 /  30  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  88  68  90 /  40  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  84  64  84 /  60  30  30  20
HOBBS NM                   68  87  65  89 /  50  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   60  80  57  82 /  50  20  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    68  89  69  91 /  30  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  68  89  69  90 /  30  10  10  10
WINK TX                    69  93  68  92 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

12/70

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
143 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-061200-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
143 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2005 /1243 PM MDT MON SEP 5 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...PRIMARILY
THIS EVENING...ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND EDDY COUNTY
NEW MEXICO PLAINS SOUTH TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS OF EXTREME WEST
TEXAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF A MOIST AIRMASS AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT EXPECTED.
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ARROYOS...DRAWS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME FOR THIS EVENING...
HOWEVER SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION THIS EVENING. BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
FROM THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
SOUTH TO THE THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND