Flash Flood Warning 122, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 210012
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
704 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

TXC243-210215-
JEFF DAVIS-
704 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR JEFF
DAVIS COUNTY...

AT 702 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE 
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL PREVIOUSLY OVER JEFF DAVIS COUNTY IS DECREASING 
WHILE MOVING NORTH AROUND 15 MPH. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL 
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AND RUNOFF FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
CONTINUE TO POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER THE WARNED AREA. RUNOFF 
WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER OVER FIRE SCARRED AREAS... 
INCLUDING MADERA CANYON.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF ARROYOS AND DRAWS...ROADS
AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS MAY TRIGGER ROCK AND MUDSLIDES
IN STEEP TERRAIN. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHERE YOU ARE RELATIVE TO ARROYOS... 
DRAWS... AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL... EVEN FROM 
DISTANT STORMS... CAN CREATE SUDDEN FLOWS CAPABLE OF OVERTAKING 
CAMPERS AND HIKERS. MOVE UP TO ESCAPE RISING WATER.

TO REPORT FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3053 10446 3041 10380 3067 10346 3110 10410
      3091 10447

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
302 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY CROPPING UP WEST OF VAN HORN...IN THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS...AND IN NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA.  BELIEVE MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
CHIHUAHUA...WHICH IS NOT READILY NOTICEABLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
HOWEVER...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES REVEAL A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX IN THE VICINITY OF EL PASO...WHICH APPEARS TO BE MOVING
NORTH/NORTHEAST.  ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE TUTT LOW
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE TO OCCUR EAST OF THE
CWA.

THINK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
TIME FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE MCV AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVE SLOWLY NORTH ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  SINCE SOME LOCATIONS
HAVE SEEN SOME SUN...THINK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE INVERTED V
CHARACTERISTICS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS THESE AREAS.

HEAVY RAIN WILL DEFINITELY BE A POSSIBILITY AS PWATS ARE RUNNING
FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER THESE AREAS.  SINCE THE CHANCE OF RAIN
IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD...ESPECIALLY IF YOU HEED THE GFS...WILL ISSUE
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
VAN HORN AREA AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...REEVES
COUNTY/UPPER TRANS PECOS...EDDY COUNTY...AND LEA COUNTY.  ALL OF
THESE AREAS SAW COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL LAST
NIGHT...CONSERVATIVELY 4 TO 5 INCHES IN VARIOUS LOCALES...WITH EDDY
AND LEA RECEIVING UPWARDS OF 7 TO 8 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS SINCE
THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST.  NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE GROUND IS SATURATED
IN THESE AREAS.  WOULD INCLUDE JEFF DAVIS COUNTY IN THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TOO...HOWEVER IT APPEARS ANY FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE MORE
ISOLATED AND CONVECTION MAY WANE THERE AROUND SUNSET.  WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON DARK CANYON IN EDDY COUNTY AS RUNOFF CONTINUES AND
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN.

FURTHER EAST...NOT ANTICIPATING TOO MUCH AS MOST OF THE LIFT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL STAY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.  STORM MOTION SHOULD
BRING SOME TSRA OUT INTO THE PLAINS...BUT THIS WILL MAINLY BE IN
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  TWEAKED A FEW TEMPERATURES IN VARIOUS
LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH THE SKY AND DEWPOINT GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MOIST SUBTROPICAL FETCH WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS...THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO SUNDAY. WILL
LIKELY SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN AGAIN ACROSS THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN NM PLAINS. LATER SHIFTS MAY WANT TO
CONSIDER INCREASING POPS AND EXPANDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO
THESE AREAS AGAIN SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY RAINS FALL AGAIN
TONIGHT.

WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LATEST GFS MODEL ORIENTS THE
THETA-E RIDGE ACROSS AREAS FROM THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TO THE
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN BOTH DAYS. WILL KEEP 20-25 PCT COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDDED POP DATABASE IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD/EXPAND WESTWARD BACK INTO MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. THE MOIST/THETA-E AXIS
WILL ALSO SHIFT WESTWARD...SO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
ISOLATED AT BEST AND WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CWA LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...WE DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF MAX/MIN TEMP...WIND...AND
DEWPOINT FIELDS. OVERALL TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              71  94  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                68  92  67  92 /  60  30  30  20
DRYDEN TX                  73  96  71  95 /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           70  94  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  87  66  86 /  60  30  30  20
HOBBS NM                   68  90  67  90 /  60  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   60  87  59  88 /  30  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    71  94  68  93 /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  71  95  69  93 /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    73 100  72  97 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...GUADALUPE
     MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA COUNTY...AND
     SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS
     PECOS...AND VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.

&&

67/21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
245 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-211945-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
245 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005 /145 PM MDT SAT AUG 20 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...VAN HORN AREA...
UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING AS MUCH RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER MOST
OF THESE AREAS...AND ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A CONTINUED CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING FLASH FLOODING ON MONDAY. THEREAFTER...THE CHANCE OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY AS THERE IS A THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING ALONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  LOCAL SPOTTER
GROUPS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE UPPER TRANS PECOS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS WHERE
HEAVY RAINS FELL LAST NIGHT.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
519 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

NMZ034-202315-
SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
419 PM MDT SAT AUG 20 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LEA COUNTY.

AT 419 PM MDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
LEA COUNTY 11 MILES TO THE WEST OF JAL ALONG STATE HIGHWAY
128...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.  TAKE COVER NOW IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.