Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 260223
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
919 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

TXC461-260245-
UPTON-
919 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR UPTON
COUNTY...

AT 916 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF UPTON COUNTY 
PRODUCING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. 

WITH CONTINUED RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS AND ADDITIONAL 
RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS UPTON COUNTY THIS EVENING... THE THREAT 
FOR FLASH FLOODING STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE COUNTY. 

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. ACT QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3117 10230 3118 10182 3160 10181 3161 10231

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
410 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

.UPDATE...
MODIFIED THE ZONE TEXT AND GRIDS BEFORE TRANSMISSION TO INCLUDE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BOX #333 UNTIL 11 PM CDT FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PERMIAN BASIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005/

SHORT TERM...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THE GLASS
MOUNTAINS/STOCKTON PLATEAU EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT/S SOUTHERN PLAINS MCS HAS PUSHED
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THESE AREAS.  AS WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS...THE CONVECTION IS STRUGGLING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO.  EXPECT ADDITIONAL WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA AS A COMBINATION OF HEATING OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND THE PRESENCE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND IT...WILL ALLOW FOR THIS.  ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8.5 C/KM...CAPE VALUES ARE NOT VERY HIGH IN
THESE LOCALES AND 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS ARE ONLY PROGGED TO
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN THEY INCREASE TO
25 TO 35 KT.  THEN AGAIN...WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO PUT
OUT STRONG WINDS DUE TO THE DRY MID LEVELS.

WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH TONIGHT AND WILL SHUNT THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.  AT THE SURFACE...A
STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MAKING IT/S WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND WAS ON THE VERGE
OF PASSING THROUGH THE KDHT AREA AT 25/18Z.  THE FRONT IS FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PROGS WERE ABLE TO HANDLE...PROBABLY DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM
A CENTRAL PLAINS NOCTURNAL MCS.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO COME CRASHING
SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.  A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA AWAITS THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT.  CAPES OF 2500 TO
3000 J/KG AND LI/S AROUND -7 C WILL COINCIDE WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 C/KM IN THESE AREAS.  0 TO 6 BULK SHEAR VECTORS
ARE PROGGED TO BE 35 TO 45 KT IN THESE SAME AREAS...ALTHOUGH MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS UNTIL 26/06Z.  STILL
THINK WE COULD SEE QUITE A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN CWA BY EARLY EVENING...THEN ADVECT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

ANOTHER MCS MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING IN REGION OF GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW...AND TRACK SOUTH/
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MAF CWA.  IF THIS MCS DEVELOPS...NOT CERTAIN
WE/LL SEE MUCH SEVERE WEATHER WHEN IT MOVES INTO THE CWA.
BUT...SINCE THERE MAY BE QUITE A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FOR IT TO
INTERSECT WITH FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE
SEVERE WORDING FOR LOCATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE PECOS
RIVER.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION THROUGH
TONIGHT.  DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...AND EXPECTED TO RISE A LITTLE MORE.  THIS
YIELDS PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS NEAR 1.5 INCHES.  WILL MENTION
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE ZONES...AND INCLUDE MENTION OF FLASH FLOODING
IN THE HWO.

LASTLY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
TIGHT.  TIGHT ENOUGH FOR WINDS IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TO REACH
40 MPH SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS OVER 55 MPH POSSIBLE.  THEREFORE...
WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS FROM LATE
EVENING UNTIL MID MORNING THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...
LOOKS LIKE THE SWITCH TO A BASICALLY AN ACTIVE PATTERN HAS BEGUN
THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PAINTED THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS THURSDAY MORNING
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXITING. THINKING THEIR WILL BE A
LULL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE WORKED OVER...
WITH ONLY 10-20 POPS WARRANTED.

ANTICIPATING ANOTHER COMPLEX FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RECOVERY
AND HEATING WITH THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH THE NEXT BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTH. STORMS SHOULD ALSO FORM IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AND TRANSLATE INTO THE PLAINS. WENT HIGH CHANCE POPS
MANY AREAS...TRANSITION INTO LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS MAY BE NEEDED CLOSER
TO EVENT.

WENT WITH 20-30 POPS SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A 500 MILLIBAR
TROUGH AXIS AND NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PAINTED
THE BEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND LOWER TRANS PECOS
WHERE THE FRONT HAS BEST CHANCE OF RESIDING AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS THE LONGEST. BEYOND SATURDAY LOOKS ACTIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
FRONT AND UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONTINUED
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WARRANT AT LEAST SLIGHT POPS AT THIS
TIME NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOLED TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE FORECAST
CYCLE IN WET REGIME AND FREQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY UNTIL 10 AM CDT
      THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONE...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF
      EDDY COUNTY.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY UNTIL 10 AM CDT
      THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONE...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

&&

67/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
314 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-261929-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
314 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 (214 PM MDT WED MAY 25 2005)

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH GUADALUPE PASS.  THE
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THURSDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.  THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING...THURSDAY MORNING AS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  SINCE THE
GROUND MAY STILL BE SATURATED FROM RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT...EMERGENCY MANAGERS...AND SPOOTER GROUPS
SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT (LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
613 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

TXZ058-074-252345-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA TX-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS
TX-
613 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR EAST CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL REEVES COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL REEVES
COUNTY AT 613 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SEEK SHELTER IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.