Tornado Warning 17, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
249 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
STRONG WAA CONTINUES ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS ARE
SURGING UPWARDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
CONTINUES THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A DRY
LINE FROM NEAR TULSA TO NEAR DALLAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREATS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY TONIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WILL ALLOW THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE AT 00Z.

WILL DECREASE POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STALLING THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES IN FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NORMAL OR ABOVE FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
WESTERLIES REMAINS VERY ACTIVE. ALL MODELS AGREE WITH MAINTAINING A
SEMI PERMANENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM
TROFFING OVER THE EAST AS A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
...THE GFS/ECMWF BLEND HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE OVERALL SITUATION
AND IS THE REFEREED SOLUTION.

TROF AXIS FROM TUESDAYS EVENT WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA WHEN THE PERIOD INITIATES WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA
AND DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG WAVE DROPS OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES ON THURSDAY.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL WILL TRAVERSE THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. FRONT LOOKS TO
BE MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC STARVED BUT WILL STILL BE ABLE TO BRING IN A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR AS ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH SETTLES IN. NO
PRECIP EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

UPPER PATTERN WILL KEEP AREA IN A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ONLY SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
DAY SEVEN COULD BE COOLEST DAY OF THE SEASON WITH MEX NUMBERS
SHOWING HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH. NOT QUITE
BUYING THAT DRASTIC OF A COOL DOWN BUT OTHERWISE MEX TEMPS LOOK
REASONABLE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  61  72  51  66 /  80  60  20  40
HARRISON AR       52  66  47  63 /  70  30  10  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    61  72  52  68 /  80  50  20  40
PINE BLUFF AR     62  73  53  69 /  80  60  30  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  54  66  47  63 /  70  40  10  40
MONTICELLO AR     62  73  54  70 /  80  70  30  40
SEARCY AR         60  70  50  65 /  70  60  10  40
MOUNT IDA AR      60  72  51  69 /  70  50  20  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   59  70  49  65 /  70  40  10  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ003-ARZ004-ARZ005-
ARZ012-ARZ013-ARZ021-ARZ022-ARZ030-ARZ037-ARZ038-ARZ040-ARZ041-
ARZ052.

&&

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM....56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1155 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-131100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1155 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NATURAL STATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND RACE TOWARDS THE NATURAL STATE. THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN MOST
AREAS ON SUNDAY...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON
MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. A NEW COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1050 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1049 PM     TORNADO          1 S MENA                34.57N 94.24W
11/12/2005                   POLK               AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POLK COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED TORNADO JUST SOUTH OF MENA
            CITY LIMITS.

&&

INIGUEZ