Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
255 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ALL EYES FOCUSED ON STORM SYSTEM/COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS...WHICH
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH STORMS ALREADY FIRING FROM IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. THIS WILL BUILD SOUTH FOR SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.

IN THE MEANTIME...CLUSTER OF STORMS AHEAD OF FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. MAINLY HAIL EXPECTED WITH THE
CLUSTER...WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING
FOR ABOUT THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES.

OVERNIGHT...STORMS IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY FIZZLE OUT THIS
EVENING. FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE PLAINS...WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVEOPING IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
TRACKING INTO ARKANSAS. SOME OF THE STORMS LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE.

AS MENTIONED...MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WELL TO THE NORTH...WITH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED AROUND UPPER LOW IN EASTERN
KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI. FARTHER SOUTH...UPPER WIND FIELD INDICATING
QUITE A BIT OF DIFFLUENCE IN WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT. THIS WILL AID
IN STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF STORMS FORMED
INTO A LINE AND TRACKED SOUTHEAST THROUGH ABOUT THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE STATE.

AT ANY RATE...HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP/CLOUD TRENDS THIS
EVENING...WITH GREATEST CHANCE OF STORMS IN WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...AND IN AREAS FARTHER EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRONT WILL HEAD INTO SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STATE FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH LEFTOVER STORMS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF LITTLE ROCK.
STRONG CIRCULATION AROUND LOW TO NORTH WILL BRING WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE INTO REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE NORTH.

COOLER/DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT AND BREEZY ON FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND...AT
THIS POINT...LOOKS PLEASANT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW
DEWPOINTS. (46)
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWFA. DRIER AIR AND AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO PRECLUDE
PRECIPITATION. WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TO START THE
PERIOD BUT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED. (51)
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    62  78  48  65 /  50  20  10   0
HARRISON AR       56  68  41  60 /  40  20  20   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    61  78  46  66 /  60  10  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     63  79  50  65 /  50  30  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  57  69  42  61 /  40  20  20   0
MONTICELLO AR     64  80  51  66 /  50  40  10   0
SEARCY AR         61  77  47  65 /  40  20  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      61  77  45  66 /  60  10  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   59  76  44  65 /  60  10  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM....51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
732 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-221000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
732 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF
ARKANSAS...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ARKANSAS TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE INTO THE
STATE AROUND MIDNIGHT. VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. DEW POINTS WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE 60
DEGREES.

THE FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE SPARKED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THE
SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE TONIGHT...WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE STATE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA IN WESTERN ARKANSAS.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT. ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR AND THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE STORMS WEAKEN
AND SLOW DOWN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
ONE HALF OF ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY...MOSTLY DURING THE DAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
PROGRESS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN MUCH OF THE AREA. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN DURING
THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REINTENSIFY OR
NEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH BY THAT
TIME SHOULD BE INTO SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY.

UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE COOLEST WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN MUCH OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS. SOME OF THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NORTH COULD FALL EVEN LOWER AND SOME FROST
IS POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL PROBABLY BE NECESSARY IN NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS EARLY TONIGHT AND MAY BE NEEDED INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

220/29

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