Severe Thunderstorm Warning 314, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT INTO THE AREA BUT IS DISINTEGRATING INTO
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAIN HAS ABOUT ENDED IN THE NORTHWEST
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS FROM OKLAHOMA. EXPECT MOST
OF THE ACTION THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING TO BE IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE PRECIPITATION SLOWLY SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST...POSSIBLY TAKING UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY TO COMPLETELY
LEAVE THE AREA. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS
FOR EARLY TONIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHWEST WITH POPS
DECREASING LATER TONIGHT. CONTINUED SMALL POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY THEN WENT DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS (RELOADS??) ACROSS THE AREA. A SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND
THE RIDGE BY LATE SUNDAY BUT LOOKS LIKE ITS EFFECTS WILL STAY NORTH
OF THE CWA RIGHT NOW. WENT CLOSE TO MAV MOS ON TEMPS BUT WENT NEAR
OR A LITTEL BELOW ON MINS FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD BE IN PLACE.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD STRONG OVER THE MID SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. NEW MODEL RUNS ARE
INCONSISTENT WITH PLACEMENT OF COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS.
LATEST RUN KEEPS IT NORTH OF THE STATE...WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL BETTER
CONTINUITY IS SHOWN.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  65  85  61  88 /  30  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       56  77  54  85 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    65  87  58  88 /  30  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     67  86  61  88 /  40  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  56  78  53  85 /  20  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     69  87  61  89 /  40  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         63  84  57  87 /  30  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      65  87  58  89 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   60  85  56  87 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...29 / LONG TERM....58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
100 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-161000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
100 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN PUSH INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF
THE STATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTH ARKANSAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER NEAR THE FRONT...WITH RAIN
CHANCES DECREASING OVER THE SOUTH BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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