Severe Thunderstorm Warning 271, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
254 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED OVER ARKANSAS TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING THEN HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON CAUSED THE DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS CLOUDS. KLZK RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND MOVING VERY
SLOWLY.

AN OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE WAS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED IN NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN MISSOURI
THROUGH MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY OVER ARKANSAS WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO MOVE
SOUTH. A MID LEVEL LOW WAS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT MOVES
THROUGH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH
THE ZONAL FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL NOT
BE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND
MOISTURE DECREASES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL....ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  74  92  70  90 /  30  40  30  30
HARRISON AR       69  86  66  85 /  40  50  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  92  72  90 /  30  30  40  40
PINE BLUFF AR     74  94  72  91 /  20  30  40  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  69  85  66  85 /  40  50  40  30
MONTICELLO AR     75  95  73  92 /  20  30  40  40
SEARCY AR         73  90  69  89 /  30  40  40  30
MOUNT IDA AR      73  92  71  90 /  30  30  40  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  90  69  88 /  30  40  30  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ021-ARZ022-ARZ030-ARZ031-
ARZ032-ARZ033-ARZ034-ARZ037-ARZ038-ARZ039-ARZ040-ARZ041-ARZ042-
ARZ043-ARZ044-ARZ045-ARZ046-ARZ047-ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-
ARZ056-ARZ057-ARZ062-ARZ063-ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-
ARZ069.

&&

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM....55

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1053 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-211000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1053 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT
REACH SEVERE LEVELS.

MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HEAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 105 TO
110...ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ISOLATED
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 3 AND 7 PM TODAY.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

55