Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
250 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
UPPER RDG HAS INCRSD ITS INFLUENCE ACRS MUCH OF THE FA THIS
AFTN...WITH MOST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE
TOPPED THE CENTURY MARK WHERE DRIER AIR HAS BEEN ABLE TO MIX DOWN. A
FEW SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF W-CNTRL AR THIS
AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIE ARND SUNSET AND WL NOT HAVE ANY RAIN
MENTIONED TNGT.

UPPER RDG IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVR AR THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS ON SAT TO BE A REPEAT TODAY AND AGAIN ON SUN AS UPPER RDG
CENTER RMNS IN THE VCNTY. WARMEST READINGS EXPECT TO OCCUR WHERE
LESSER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL HAVE OCCURRED THE PAST WEEK...RESULTING
IN DRIER SOIL CONDITIONS. WL EXTEND HEAT ADVY THRU SUN FOR LOCATIONS
MAINLY ALONG AND S OF THE AR RIVER VALLEY.

SOME RETURN IN MOISTURE IS NOTED FOR LATER SUN AND MONDAY. HAVE LEFT
SMALL AFTN AND EARLY EVENING POPS FOR MAINLY S AR FOR THE TIME
BEING. DID LOWER MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR MON WITH MORE CLOUDS
EXPECTED AS BETTER RETURN FLOW SETS UP AND CENTER OF UPPER RDG
SLIDES EWD.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE BUT
THE DEVIL REMAINS IN THE DETAILS WITH SMALLER SCALE FEATURES NOT IN
THE BEST AGREEMENT OR SHOWING THE BEST CONTINUITY. GFS CONTINUES TO
BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH THE DGEX MUCH SLOWER. DGEX SOLUTION HAS THE FRONT
WAFFLING AROUND NORTH ARKANSAS/SOUTHERN MISSOURI FOR SEVERAL DAYS
BEFORE IT LIMPS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THIS SCENARIO MAKES MORE SENSE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. SOLUTION ALSO IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS AND AS SUCH IS THE PREFERRED CHOICE.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH BROAD TROFFING OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION
AND A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. AS UPPER FLOW
BUCKLES EARLY IN THE PERIOD...MODELS TRY TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. BASED ON THE
UPPER FLOW ALOFT...FRONT EXPECTED TO WAFFLE AROUND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
OR SOUTHERN MISSOURI BEFORE SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH BUT STILL ONLY
REACHING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BY LATE FRIDAY.

WITH FRONT IN THE GENERAL AREA THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST. WITH NO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FINER DETAILS...WILL NOT TRY TO TIME THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW AND GO WITH MORE OF A
BROAD BRUSH APPROACH.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES....INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL
KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM THE STEAMY HIGHS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH NO WHOLE SCALE CHANGES EXPECTED.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...ARZ021...ARZ022...ARZ030...ARZ031...ARZ032...ARZ033...
ARZ034....ARZ037...ARZ038...ARZ039...ARZ040...ARZ041...ARZ042...
ARZ043...ARZ044...ARZ045...ARZ046...ARZ047...ARZ052...ARZ053...
ARZ054...ARZ055...ARZ056...ARZ057...ARZ062...ARZ063...ARZ064...
ARZ065...ARZ066...ARZ067...ARZ068...AND ARZ069.
&&

44/56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
502 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             2 S RAGTOWN             34.50N 91.10W
07/21/2005  0.75 INCH        MONROE             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

0440 PM     HAIL             INDIAN BAY              34.38N 91.07W
07/21/2005  0.88 INCH        MONROE             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

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