Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
920 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT ON TARGET AND NO CHANGES NEEDED OTHER
THAN A LITTLE SUPERFICIAL TWEAKING OF THE GRIDS. PULSE TYPE
CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATER ON WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. NOT EXPECTING IT TO MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL
SECTIONS UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE. CURRENTS POPS LOOK GOOD AND WILL BE
LEFT ALONE.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION  /ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005/...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE WAS BROKEN EARLY...VERY LITTLE CAP NOTED IN
THE SOUNDING...AND OUTFLOW FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI CONVECTION CAME
TOGETHER IN THESE AREAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...DYING OFF A LITTLE BIT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI. FRONT CURRENTLY INDICATED BY SURFACE DATA
OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...BUT THESE WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND LIMITED TO ONLY
EXTREME NORTHERN ARKANSAS.

ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY
THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH HEATING OF THE DAY...OUTFLOW LEFT
FROM THE PREVIOUS STORMS...AND SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY...CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY FIRE UP AGAIN OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO INDICATING POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY INVOF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AFFECTING SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING
SATURDAY. AGAIN...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG. WILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

FRONT WILL STALL INVOF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BRIEFLY...BEFORE THE SYSTEM
EITHER WASHES OUT OR HEADS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY LATE SATURDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH INVOF THE DETERIORATING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

ONE FORTUNATE THING ABOUT THE SHORT TERM IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE QUITE A BIT COOLER...WITH LOWS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...AND HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. (57)

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FIRLY ENTRENCHED OVER REGION MONDAY/
TUESDAY...WITH DRY AND HOT WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TOWARD
THE END OF THE LONG TERM...APPEARS THAT RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CREATE A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
ALOFT...WITH FRONT RIDING FLOW TOWARD REGION. HAVE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING A LITTLE. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. (46)

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1225 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1225 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX LEVELS TO NEAR 100
DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND CLOSE TO 105
DEGREES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. PEOPLE SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. DRINK PLENTY OF NON
ALCOHOLIC LIQUIDS AND WEAR LIGHT COLORED AND LIGHT WEIGHT CLOTHING.

DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP RANDOMLY. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME SPOTTY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WILL
AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN CONCERNS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. AFTER
PRECIPITATION WEAKENS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE ON FRIDAY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

46