Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
230 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE FORECAST.
RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH DEEP
LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS LEAVES ARKANSAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES ROTATING IN THE FLOW. EACH SHOT
OF ENERGY WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION EITHER ALONG A WEAK SURFACE FRONT OR
AN MCS. THE SURFACE WILL BE MARKED BY SPANS OF COOL AND DRY AIR
REPLACE BY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR...EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES WILL
HAVE BE KNOCKED CLOSER TO NORMALS. POPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THIS
PATTERN IN LIGHT OF THE PUSH AND SHOVE TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LARGE CYCLONE...SO TENDED TO GO LOWER THAN MOS NUMBERS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  90  68  85  63 /  20  30  30  30
HARRISON AR       85  63  82  56 /  40  40  40  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  68  86  63 /  20  20  30  30
PINE BLUFF AR     90  69  86  64 /  20  20  30  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  63  81  55 /  40  40  40  10
MONTICELLO AR     91  70  88  65 /  10  20  30  30
SEARCY AR         89  66  84  61 /  30  40  40  30
MOUNT IDA AR      90  68  86  63 /  20  20  30  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   89  66  84  61 /  30  40  30  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SHORT AND LONG TERM...32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1055 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-231000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1055 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF ARKANSAS. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWEST QUARTER
OF THE STATE UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE FURTHER SOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ALTHOUGH A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE OCCURRING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS MONDAY MORNING...
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR TO BE LOW.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...NEW STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT IN THE STATE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS...BUT IT APPEARS THAT
ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ONLY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. THESE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OUT OF ARKANSAS ON MONDAY EVENING.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN WILL BE LIMITED AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.
&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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