Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1050 AM CDT MON APR 11 2005

.UPDATE...
CURRENT GRIDS ACTUALLY IN VERY GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY SOME LOCAL
TWEAKING TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS WILL BE NEEDED. FIRST BATCH OF
CONVECTION ROLLED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF
LARGE HAIL RECEIVED. FOCUS NOW TURNS TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG CONVECTION.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH ASSOCIATED TROF AXIS TAKING ON
A NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT
OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHICH ALSO PROGRESSES VERY SLOWLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS POINT FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING
OUT OF THE UPPER LOW. PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN A POSSIBILITY.

STILL EXPECTING CONVECTION TO FIRE UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL QUESTIONABLE. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
BE WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD THIS MORNING AND INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL. IF ANY CLEARING DOES OCCUR BETWEEN THE WAVES OF RAIN...THE
ATMOSPHERE COULD DESTABILIZE RAPIDLY. BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE WX WILL
LIKELY BE OVER THE SOUTH. STRONG SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA DOES HAVE INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOWING SOME
ROTATION. NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS SQUALL LINE WILL CLIP SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS WHERE A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION  /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON APR 11 2005/...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA BUT THINGS STILL APPEAR TO
BE ABOUT ON SCHEDULE AS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT ISSUE
TIME ABOUT AS EXPECTED AND RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST IN THE SOUTH.
EVENING RAOBS SHOWED A SUBSTANTIAL CAP OVER THE AREA BUT THAT SHOULD
WEAKEN AS COLDER TEMPS ALOFT MOVE IN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROF. INSTABILITY THIS MORNING WILL BE MARGINAL BUT MAY INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LITTLE HEATING AND POSSIBLY AN INCREASE IN
DEW POINTS. STARTED OUT WITH POPS RANING FROM 60 IN THE NORTHEAST
TO 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST BUT HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS IN ALL AREAS BY
MIDDAY THEN DECREASE POPS IN THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND CLEARS OUT MOISTURE IN THE WEST. SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD NOT BE TOO HIGH THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HAIL OR BOW ECHOES WITH WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SEVERE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND APPROACH OF THE SHORT WAVE. WENT WITH SEVERE WORDING
IN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. ALSO WITH BEST UVVS IN THE SOUTH...HEAVIER
RAINS ARE LIKELY THERE AND MENTIONED HEAVY RAINS IN THE SOUTH HALF.
THE MAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 06Z
IF NOT SEVERAL HOURS SOONER. KEPT SEVERE WORDING FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS THIS EVENING AND HEAVY RAIN WORDING FOR THE SOUTHEAST FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS EVENING. ALSO LEFT POPS AS THEY WERE FOR
TONIGHT WITH POPS DECREASING FROM THE WEST. UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST
TO THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY THEN IT SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST BY
WEDNESDAY. CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW TO THE CWA WARRANTS
KEEPING SMALL POPS IN THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOLER
AND DRIER AND RESULTINGLY MORE STABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE...SO
WENT MAINLY WITH SHOWERS...BUT DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES...PUT ISOLATED THUNDER IN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS TODAY WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN DOMINATING THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME AREAS IN THE
WEST MAY SEE TEMPS RISE SOME MORE THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN DECREASES.
PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS BEYOND TODAY WITH LOWER
MINS LIKELY DUE TO DRIER AIR...MINS MOSTLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
MAXES SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN IN RECENT DAYS ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH WHERE THE UPPER LOW MAY PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS. WENT WITH MAXES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 60 IN THE NORTH AND
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EXTENDED RANGE SOLNS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING.
PERIOD STARTS OF WITH WANING MOISTURE OVER NORTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS...AS UPPER LOW FINALLY HEADS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE PLAINS. MID-SOUTH
WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...WITH SURFACE LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND ANOTHER SURFACE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE ROCKIES. THIS
WILL KEEP FLOW NORTHEAST/EASTERLY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES TOLERABLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF SPRING /LOWS IN THE
50S...HIGHS IN THE 70S/.

BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP...WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN AND LIKELY STALL
INVOF THE MID OR LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH
A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH FOR THE LATTER PERIODS...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS IN THE NORTH AND WEST...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. GOING
FORECAST HANDLES TEMPERATURES VERY WELL...SO MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGES WITH THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1020 AM CDT MON APR 11 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-121000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1020 AM CDT MON APR 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
THROUGH 7 PM TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HERMITAGE TO DUMAS.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM FOR LINCOLN...BRADLEY...
DREW...AND DESHA COUNTIES.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING IN THE REST OF THE LITTLE ROCK FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS ARKANSAS TODAY.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE OVER THE AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT. TORNADOES COULD DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT IN
THE SOUTH.

ALSO...HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE IN THE SOUTH. ISOLATED
2 TO 3 INCH RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY
TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT THOSE SHOULD BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS WITH LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE IN MISSOURI TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AND IT COULD SLIP INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THE AIR WILL BE
LACK THE NECESSARY INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL COULD DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MOST ANYWHERE TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

38

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
649 AM CDT MON APR 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 AM     HAIL             CAMMACK VILLAGE         34.78N 92.35W
04/11/2005  0.75 INCH        PULASKI            AR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0525 AM     HAIL             CAMMACK VILLAGE         34.78N 92.35W
04/11/2005  0.75 INCH        PULASKI            AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HAIL ON I-430 BRIDGE.

0623 AM     HAIL             BENTON                  34.57N 92.58W
04/11/2005  1.00 INCH        SALINE             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SOUTH SIDE OF BENTON.

&&

220

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
745 AM CDT MON APR 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 AM     HAIL             SHERIDAN                34.31N 92.41W
04/11/2005  0.75 INCH        GRANT              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

56