Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
232 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY INDICATES STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
BETWEEN MENA AND FORT SMITH...TO NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK...TO NEAR
MEMPHIS AND POINTS EASTWARD. STORM SYSTEM OUT IN KANSAS LAST
NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING PUT OUT A SURFACE WAVE WHICH HAS INTERACTED
WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.

LARGE H5 RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GULF COAST...THUS THE FRONT
ISN/T GOING ANYWHERE FOR A WHILE. SEVERAL UPPER SYSTEMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN IN THE MEAN FLOW AND CONTINUE INTERACTING WITH
THE STALLED BOUNDARY. SYSTEMS THEMSELVES ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO
TIME...BUT THE TENDENCY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH SOME NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF MCS
DEVELOPMENT...THEN DIMINISHING IN THE MORNING...AND REFIRING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

LOOKING TOWARD THE WEEKEND...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WASH OUT...WITH
ANOTHER ONE APPROACHING. THUS...WE CAN LARGELY EXPECT THE SAME
SCENARIO TO CONTINUE. LEFT CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS IN MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  74  93  75  95 /  20  30  30  30
HARRISON AR       67  84  72  85 /  40  40  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  94  74  96 /  20  30  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR     74  95  75  94 /  20  20  30  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  84  71  89 /  30  40  40  30
MONTICELLO AR     74  95  75  95 /  20  20  30  30
SEARCY AR         73  92  75  94 /  20  30  30  30
MOUNT IDA AR      72  95  74  96 /  20  30  30  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  93  73  94 /  20  40  30  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT AND LONG TERM...57

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
115 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-251000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
115 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS ARKANSAS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH ARKANSAS
ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

38

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
314 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PINE RIDGE              34.58N 93.88W
08/24/2005                   MONTGOMERY         AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF HOUSES, STREET SIGNS DOWN, TREES DOWN.

&&

INIGUEZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
621 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DONALDSON               34.23N 92.92W
08/24/2005                   HOT SPRING         AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINE DOWN. POWER OUTAGES IN THE DONALDSON AREA.

&&

22