Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2005

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Baltimore/Washington

April 23, 2005Stafford County, Virginia

NWS Baltimore/Washington issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 23, 2005, 3:33 PM EDT for Stafford County, Virginia. It was in force for 57 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Apr 23, 2005, 3:33 PM EDT (19:33 UTC)
Expired
Apr 23, 2005, 4:30 PM EDT
In force
57 min
Issued by
NWS Baltimore/Washington
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Stafford County, VA

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 62 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Apr 23, 1:10 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 59 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2005-04-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 7 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2005-04-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 122 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
7 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-138 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
485 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
122 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
166 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 23, 2:41 PM EDT, 52 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 23, 2:41 PM EDT, 52 minutes before
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 200 IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 8 PM...

STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH HAS HELPED TO DESTABILIZE
THE AREA EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. SQUALL LINE WILL BEGIN TO
ORGANIZE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
NEAR 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL OF PENNY SIZE AND LARGER. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE FROM MARFC IS HIGH ENOUGH TO DIMINISH FLASH FLOODING
RISK.

SEE SPSLWX...NOWLWX...AND ANY WARNINGS ISSUED FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY...

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
30S IN THE WESTERN RIDGES AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS IN WEST OF THE ALLEGANY FRONT THIS EVENING. EXPECTING A RAIN
SNOW MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW ALONG THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. ONGOING
FORECAST OF 2 TO 4 INCHES STORM TOTAL LOOK GOOD FOR NOW.

SEE WSWLWX FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON WINTER WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE RATHER DREARY ON MONDAY
WITH COOL...CLOUDY...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE WEST TO
THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A
WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED. SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE ALLEGANY FRONT WILL ALSO
LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS...OBSCURING THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...SNOW ADVISORY FOR MDZ002 FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY.
VA...SNOW ADVISORY FOR VAZ021 FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY.
WV...SNOW ADVISORY FOR WVZ048-049-054 FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 6 AM
     MONDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND MARYLAND
         PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 23, 9:55 AM EDT, 5 hours 38 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2005

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-241000-
ALBEMARLE VA-ALLEGANY MD-ANNE ARUNDEL MD-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA VA-AUGUSTA VA-BERKELEY WV-
CALVERT MD-CARROLL MD-CHARLES MD-CLARKE VA-CULPEPER VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-FAIRFAX VA-FAUQUIER VA-FREDERICK VA-
FREDERICK MD-GRANT WV-GREENE VA-HAMPSHIRE WV-HARDY WV-HARFORD MD-
HIGHLAND VA-HOWARD MD-JEFFERSON WV-KING GEORGE VA-LOUDOUN VA-
MADISON VA-MINERAL WV-MONTGOMERY MD-MORGAN WV-NELSON VA-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-ORANGE VA-PAGE VA-PENDLETON WV-
PRINCE GEORGES MD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-
RAPPAHANNOCK VA-ROCKINGHAM VA-SHENANDOAH VA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE MD-
SPOTSYLVANIA VA-ST. MARYS MD-STAFFORD VA-WARREN VA-WASHINGTON MD-
955 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND WASHINGTON DC.

.DAY ONE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
INCLUDING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA AND THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AND INTENSIFY AS THEY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INCLUDING THE
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 3 PM AND 5 PM. THE SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BETWEEN 5
PM AND 7 PM.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL
OF PENNY SIZED OR LARGER AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
AFTER THE COLD FRONT...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS FROM FROSTBURG MARYLAND...DOWN THROUGH MOUNT
STORM AND SPRUCE MOUNTAIN IN WEST VIRGINIA...TO WESTERN HIGHLAND
COUNTY VIRGINIA. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ON THIS
WESTERN RIDGELINE FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY. A
SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT AREA.

ALSO...LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS BOTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED AROUND NOON TODAY...LASTING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALSO...SNOW SPOTTER REPORTS ARE ENCOURAGED.

MANNING

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Apr 23, 9:48 AM EDT, 5 hours 45 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
948 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2005

DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ050>053-055-232100-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-
CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...
WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...
WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...
WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...CHARLOTTESVILLE...LEESBURG...
CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...
FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN
948 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
INCLUDING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT
OF COLUMBIA AND THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS TEH REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AND INTENSIFY AS THEY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INCLUDING THE
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 3 PM AND 5 PM. THE SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BETWEEN 5
PM AND 7 PM.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL
OF PENNY SIZED OR LARGER AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON
THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER IF THREATENING
WEATHER APPROACHES. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL
MEDIA FOR THE LATER UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

MANNING
Special weather statement, Apr 23, 9:48 AM EDT, 5 hours 45 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
948 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2005

DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ050>053-055-232100-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-
CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...
WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...
WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...
WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...CHARLOTTESVILLE...LEESBURG...
CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...
FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN
948 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
INCLUDING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT
OF COLUMBIA AND THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AND INTENSIFY AS THEY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INCLUDING THE
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 3 PM AND 5 PM. THE SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BETWEEN 5
PM AND 7 PM.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL
OF PENNY SIZED OR LARGER AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON
THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER IF THREATENING
WEATHER APPROACHES. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL
MEDIA FOR THE LATER UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

MANNING

The office that day

Everything else NWS Baltimore/Washington issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 23, 3:02 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXSpotsylvania, City of Fredericksburg45 min
Apr 23, 3:12 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningLWX2 hr
Apr 23, 3:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXPrince William, City of Manassas, City of Manassas Park61 min
Apr 23, 4:17 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXKing George58 min
Apr 23, 4:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXFairfax, City of Fairfax, City of Falls Church46 min
Apr 23, 4:59 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningLWX16 min
Apr 23, 5:53 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningLWX2 hr
Apr 23, 6:06 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningLWX114 min
Apr 23, 4:50 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXMontgomery40 min
Apr 23, 4:52 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXPrince George's53 min
Apr 23, 5:16 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAnne Arundel59 min
Apr 23, 5:47 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore58 min
Apr 23, 6:34 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXHarford26 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Virginia, 2005Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.