Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
305 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 15Z SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WEAKENING
INTO MISSOURI. SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW REGIONAL
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK...WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS TWO DISTINCT LINES OF ACTIVITY. THE FIRST LINE
IS ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...BECOMING BROKEN ACROSS VIRGINIA.
THE SECOND LINE IS ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EXTENDING INTO WEST
VIRGINIA.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. EXPECTING THE SEVERE ACTIVITY TO MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA BY 10 PM.

CAP SHOULD BE IN PLACE TOMORROW TO HINDER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD BE ISOLATED...SO HAVE KEPT ONLY 14
POPS FOR TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. POPULATED GRIDS WITH
HPC GUIDANCE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN EXPECTED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...

APPROACHING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WEST THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THE METRO AREAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED USE OF VCTS IN TAFS...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE
LATER TODAY AS ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STORMS...WILL MENTION TEMPO GROUP OF
STRONG WINDS WITH NEXT TAF ISSUANCE. ALSO...BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. ACTIVITY SHOULD END AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT FOG SHOULD REDEVELOP AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS
AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

ALLEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-
025>031-036>042-050>057-WVZ048>055-071000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-ALLEGANY-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-GRANT-MINERAL-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-
PENDLETON-HARDY-
340 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE
EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT
COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
WASHINGTON DC AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
UNTIL 10 PM FOR MOST OF MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND THE EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA PANHANDLE. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS...RESULTING IN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG ITS
PATH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE BLUE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
BAND OF STORMS...THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS BETWEEN 5 AND 9 PM.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER REPORTS THROUGH THE DAY FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS. IF THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN...THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION WOULD BE TO SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKY WARN SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
243 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-070045-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-ALLEGANY-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-GRANT-MINERAL-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-
PENDLETON-HARDY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...CUMBERLAND...HAGERSTOWN...
FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...
ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...
HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...CHARLOTTESVILLE...
LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...
ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG...BAYARD...
PETERSBURG...KEYSER...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN
243 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
UNTIL 10 PM FOR MOST OF MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND THE EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA PANHANDLE. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS...RESULTING IN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG ITS
PATH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE BLUE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
BAND OF STORMS...THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS BETWEEN 5 AND 9 PM.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER REPORTS THROUGH THE DAY FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS. IF THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN...THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION WOULD BE TO SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION.

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