Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
317 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...

SFC HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TO THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL TN VALLEY TO WESTERN OH. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH HAS
ADVECTED HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS WITH DEWPOINTS AT 18Z IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
CWA. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED STRONG SURFACE
HEATING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SB CAPE RANGING FROM 1100 TO 1600 J/KG
THROUGH 02Z. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS IN THE WESTERN
CWA IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEE TROUGH. COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN CWA TONIGHT AROUND 06Z AND WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOWER CHANCES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN VA/DC/CENTRAL MD AT AROUND
12Z. H25 JET FORCING WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...AND DUE TO THE
TIMING OF THE FROPA ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE MORE STABLE MORNING
HOURS...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z AND
WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS COUNTIES NEAR
THE CHESAPEAKE. SB CAPE VALUES ACROSS THESE AREAS NEAR 800
J/KG...BUT 0-6 KM WIND SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WOULD SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS ACCOMPANYING STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
EXITING THE MID ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL PLAN TO MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES...THIS IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH LATEST MOS AND SURROUNDING OFFICES. PLAN TO REMOVE POPS MONDAY
MORNING AS ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RIDGING AND SFC
HIGH PRES SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY BUT PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME FAST
U/L FLOW AND AN U/L TROUGH WHICH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. SO FAR MODELS ARE NOT SPITTING OUT
ANY QPF WITH THIS FEATURE BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

HPC POP GRIDS ARE AGREEABLE AS A WRAPPED UP SFC CYCLONE MOVES
THROUGH THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND INTO PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. WILL SLOW INTRO OF POPS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
CWFA...WITH HIGHER POPS AROUND 50 ON THURSDAY. UPPER LOW WILL LAG
THROUGH THE MID ALTC AND SOUTHEAST US REGION FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL MEAN COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE
REGION. WILL ALSO MENTION THE THREAT FOR TSTMS WED NGT AND THU IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND AS A COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH ON THU.

&&

.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
COULD PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 02Z.
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL AFFECT MRB BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z AND DCA/IAD/BWI/MTN/CHO
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BE WEAK...AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KT.
DANGEROUS WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH COULD OCCUR BETWEEN 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON AND 03Z TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AND AGAIN
SUNDAY BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JB
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1130 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2005

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-150930-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-ALLEGANY-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-GRANT-MINERAL-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-
PENDLETON-HARDY-
1130 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND WASHINGTON DC.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING THE
PANHANDLE OF WV...MUCH OF MD AND NORTHERN VA.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO AFTERNOON
HEATING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER 4 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JB

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