Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
320 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

.SHORT TERM (TNGT/FRI)...

NOT MUCH CHG TO MY THINKING FM THE ERLR DSCN. BLV HVIEST PCPN WL BE
ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE MTNS BTWN 06 AND 12Z. IN ADDITION TO THE
REMNANTS OF CINDY THE OTHER REASON FOR CONCERN IS THE LOW LVL ERLY
FLOW WHICH WOULD ENHANCE PCPN PROCESSES. A FLSH FLD WTCH IS UP FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT I DONT THINK ALL AREAS IN THE CWA HV AN EQUAL
THREAT. HIGHEST IS ERN MTN SLOPES PLUS AM ALSO CONCERNED ABT URBAN
AREAS..WHILE LWR SRN MD HAS THE LOWEST THREAT.

WE SPOKE W/ SPC ABT 1/2 HR AGO. AT THIS TIME THERE ARE TWO SVR
WATCHES OUT TO OUR S. THEY ARE NOT XPCTG TO ISSUE ANYTHING IN OUR
CWA IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. RW THAT ARE APPEARING AT THIS TIME ARE
FORMING IN THE NRN PART OF THE CWA BASED ON THAT IS THE ONLY AREA W/
A DIFFERENCE IN INSOLATION..FURTHER S IN OUR CWA IS ENTIRELY OVC.
EVE SHIFT WL HV TO SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS IN THE NEXT FEW HRS.

AM EXITING THE BULK OF THE PCPN OUT OF THE NERN CORNER OF MD DURG
MRNG HRS FRI. DEPENDING ON HOW THE PCPN OCCURS TNGT WELL HV TO SEE
WHAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF RVR FLDG IS FRI/SAT.

WOODY

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...

FRIDAY NIGHT THE LOW PRES WILL BE MOVING WELL TO THE NE OF THE CWFA.
BROAD TROUGHING IN THE MID LVLS BEHIND THE LOW PRES WHILE RIDGING
BUILDS IN AT THE SFC. THINK WE ARE SAFE TO REMOVE CHANCES OF PRECIP
FRI NGT THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THIS PATTERN...HWVR SHOULD BE A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DUE TO RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE.

LARGE SCALE MID LVL RIDGE MOVES FROM THE MS VLY ON SAT TOWARD THE
EAST COAST ON SUN. THIS SHOULD HELP STEER A BIT OF THE MOISTURE FROM
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE DENNIS BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLC REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS WE HAVE KEPT THE FCST DRY UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY...AS LARGE SCALE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SOME PVA WORKS INTO
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES FOR TSRA/SHWR THROUGH THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE FROM THE LOWER 90S OVER THE
WEEKEND BACK INTO THE 80S WITH SLIGHTLY DECREASING MID LVL HGTS. FOR
NOW LATEST HPC GUIDANCE IS NOT LATCHING ONTO THE LATEST GFS SLTN
WHICH SWINGS THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS BACK TOWARDS US BUT WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS PATTERN.

JB

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CIGS/VBSY OVRNGT IN A LENGTHY PD OF MDT RA.

&&

.MARINE...SCA WL BE UP ON THE WATERS BEGINNING AT MDNGT. WE WL HV TO
KEEP OUR EYES ON TRW WHICH COULD BRING DOWN HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DCZ001 FROM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
FRIDAY.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018 FROM
THIS EVENING TO 4 PM FRIDAY.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057 THIS
EVENING TO 4 PM FRIDAY.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WVZ048>055 FROM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
FRIDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>537 FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6 PM
FRIDAY.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1125 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-
025>031-036>042-050>057-WVZ048>055-081000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-ALLEGANY-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-GRANT-MINERAL-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-
PENDLETON-HARDY-
1125 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE
EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT
COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
WASHINGTON DC AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY.
THE RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER AFTER 5 PM AND CONTINUE
AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
TORNADO THREAT AREA LOOKS TO BE FROM CHARLOTTESVILLE NORTHEAST TO
THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA AND BALTIMORE...AND POINTS FURTHER EAST TO
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ON FRIDAY FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR RIVER FLOODING TO CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

JB

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