Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
258 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

.SHORT TERM...
VERY COMPLICATED SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FEATURING A MESOLOW OVER THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT WITH A
BULGING DRYLINE INTO THE CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS. A RETREATING
OUTFLOW MOVING NORTHWARD IN THE RED RIVER REGION ALONG WITH
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY MOVING THRU THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES
INTO OUR NORTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES ADDS TO THE COMPLEXITY. HWO EARLIER
ISSUED AND SPC RISK AREAS HIGHLIGHT SVR THREATS TDY/TONIGHT...
INCLUDING THE THREAT OF ISOLD TORNADOES MAINLY IN THE NRN ROLLING
PLAINS. TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE NEXT FEW HRS ACROSS THE NRN
ROLLING PLAINS AND POSSIBLY SPREAD SOUTH ALONG DL. ONE CONCERN IS
THE POSSIBLE FUNNELING OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR BACK WEST INTO HALE AND
SWISHER COUNTIES WHERE BOUNDARIES ARE PRESENT FOR POSSIBLE
INITIATION...WILL WATCH THIS AREA CLOSELY. FEW CHANGES MADE TO
INHERITED WINDS. THE WIND SHOULD TURN NE ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA
TONITE AS MORE CONCENTRATED COLD FRONT PUSH OCCURS. THIS SHOULD
TEMPORARILY SHIFT THE MAIN THREAT OF STORMS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST ON
SATURDAY HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SW AND SRN COUNTIES
CLOSELY IN VICINITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR OTHER BAROCLINIC ZONES.
COOLER AIR BEHIND FRONT AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT UNDER WEAK RIDGING
SHOULD RESTRICT COVERAGE OF PRECIP AND SVR POTENTIAL THRU SAT AFTN.

.LONG TERM...
WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING SIERRA INTO WESTERN
GREAT BASIN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST WITHIN/BENEATH THE RIDGE TRYING TO
PUMP UP OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS GUMS PATTERN UP ENOUGH TO SPREAD
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO SOUTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. CONVECTION
APPEARS WILL GENERATE ACROSS SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY AND
SPREAD OUT INTO EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO NEAR OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY VICINITY PECOS VALLEY...THEN TOWARDS WEST TEXAS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS UP IN OUR AREA WOULD LIKELY BE NORTH OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOT POSING SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT...BUT HAVE INCREASED
TO A CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WEAK
SYSTEM MAY STILL HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR ANOTHER
GO-AROUND WITH STORMS ON MONDAY. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES...BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THIS LIKELY WILL NEED
REFINEMENT.

STILL PLAYING DRYING AND WARMING FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...THOUGH
ACKNOWLEDGING INDICATIONS AIRMASS MAY BE JUST A LITTLE SLOWER TO DRY
OUT AND STABILIZE ALOFT WITH LINGERING SOUTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AND
HINT AT UPPER LEVEL RIPPLES. WILL LEAVE LATER SHIFTS TO TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT THAT.  MCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  73  50  70 /  20  20  20  30
TULIA         51  74  52  70 /  40  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     54  75  52  70 /  40  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     54  75  52  71 /  30  20  30  30
LUBBOCK       56  75  53  71 /  30  20  30  30
BROWNFIELD    56  76  53  72 /  30  30  30  30
CHILDRESS     57  76  53  74 /  50  10  20  30
SPUR          58  76  55  73 /  40  20  30  30
ASPERMONT     60  78  56  76 /  50  20  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

99/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

TXZ021>044-141642-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
GARZA-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KENT-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-
STONEWALL-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
1142 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM TULIA TO ROARING SPRINGS TO POST.

THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHILE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT WIND
SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WOULD PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE TO THE NORTH
OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION ACROSS THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS LIKELY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
418 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             5 NNE PADUCAH           34.08N 100.27W
05/13/2005  1.75 INCH        COTTLE             TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

KW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
434 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0433 PM     HAIL             10 E PADUCAH            34.01N 100.13W
05/13/2005  2.75 INCH        COTTLE             TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

KW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
527 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TORNADO          2 SW HACKBERRY          33.91N 100.18W
05/13/2005                   COTTLE             TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN

0521 PM     HAIL             SILVERTON               34.47N 101.30W
05/13/2005  0.88 INCH        BRISCOE            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RCB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
555 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     HAIL             QUITAQUE                34.37N 101.06W
05/13/2005  1.75 INCH        BRISCOE            TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

GS

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