Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1155 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

.UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE ZFP TO INCLUDE WATCH. BOUNDARY IS LOCATED VIA
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG A TULIA TO AMHERST
TO MORTON AND THEN INTO LEA COUNTY NEW MEXICO. THIS BOUNDARY IS
SLOWING DOWN WITH ONLY WEAK PRESSURE RISES INDICATED ATTM. RUC IS
FORECASTING THE DRYLINE TO MOVE A LITTLE EAST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS. THE INTERSECTION OF DRYLINE AND THIS SHALLOW BOUNDARY
MAY BE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CAPE IS VERY
HIGH...2700 J/KG ACCORDING TO LOCAL LAPS. ALSO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
LOOKS TO MINIMAL. UPDATED EARLIER TO INCREASE POPS AND MENTION
SEVERE IN GRIDS.

ALSO..BOTH GFS AND NAM ARE DEVELOPING A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
TOWARD CHILDRESS AND THE RED RIVER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES
ON DIFFUSE 850 MB FRONT...AS IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE SUPPLY RIDES OVER
THIS FRONTAL ZONE. SYSTEM IF IT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY PROPAGATE E/SE
WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

06/JAMES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

TXZ021>044-131630-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
GARZA-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KENT-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-
STONEWALL-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
1130 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS AREA IS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MORTON...TO FLOYDADA...TO PADUCAH. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS ARE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS TODAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE STATIONARY OR MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT
NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE DEPENDANT ON SURFACE HEATING.
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE DURING THE DAY LEADING TO
SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. MODERATE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
HOWEVER...ENHANCED SHEAR ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A THREAT
OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

TONIGHT...A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY FORM OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THIS COMPLEX WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SEVERE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE
THREAT AREA WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
CONVECTION AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1137 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

TXZ021>025-027>031-033>036-039>041-130000-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-COCHRAN-CROSBY-FLOYD-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-LAMB-
LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
1137 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 257 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

PARMER...CASTRO...SWISHER...BRISCOE...HALL...BAILEY...LAMB...HALE...
FLOYD...MOTLEY...COCHRAN...HOCKLEY...LUBBOCK...CROSBY...YOAKUM...
TERRY AND LYNN.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND
OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.