Severe Thunderstorm Warning 303, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1257 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BRINGING WITH IT
MUCH DRIER AIR. DEWPOINTS WERE DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S AT KCVN.
WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING A SLOW SOUTHWARD PUSH WE BELIEVE THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FOCUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS
LOCATED FROM NEAR MEMPHIS TO TAHOKA. THOUGHTS ARE THAT WINDS
SHOULD BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. AS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AND INTERACT WITH A STRONG JET MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING WE SHOULD SEE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SUPERCELLS. BEST CHANCES FOR THE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITHIN 60 MILES OF CDS IF THE WINDS BACK AS
ANTICIPATED.

SATELLITE ALSO REVEALS SOME LIFT MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH SOME MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME HIGH BASED THUNDER WEST
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THIS LIFT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS DRY
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1209 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039>041-141715-
PARMER-CASTRO-BAILEY-LAMB-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-
1209 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TXZ023>026-029>032-035>038-042>044-141715-
SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-HALE-FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-LUBBOCK-
CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1209 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A TULIA TO PLAINVIEW TO POST LINE WITH THE GREATEST RISK WITHIN
60 MILES OF CHILDRESS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND A SURFACE TROUGH
LOCATED NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK COULD CREATE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG
PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA WILL ARRIVE OVER WEST
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR TO ALLOW SUPERCELLS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.