Severe Thunderstorm Warning 296, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
325 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005

.SHORT TERM...
SHEARED AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH AND SPEED MAX APPROACH. INCREASED
THUNDERSTORMS TO HIGH CHANCES MOST OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. STORMS HAVE BEEN AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
MULTICELLULAR LINES WITH A LOW SEVERE THREAT FOR BOTH HAIL AND WIND.
WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT SLOWLY FALLING...CONVECTIVE LINES WILL BE MOVING
EAST AS WELL ALTHOUGH SLOWLY...SO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT WILL
STILL NEED SOME WATCHING TONIGHT. APPEARS ACTIVITY MAY LET UP SOME
AFTER THE EVENING AS TROUGH PASSES AND COOLER AIR SETS IN...BUT WILL
NOT REMOVE LATE NIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST YET. DRY LINE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED ON MONDAY...BUT
UPPER FORCING LESS. CHANCE OF STORMS STILL JUSTIFIED THEREFORE AND
WILL REQUIRE FEW CHANGES.  MCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD RETAINING LOW-LVL MOISTURE
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MON EVE INSTEAD OF DRYING OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES BEHIND A SFC TROF. HAVE THUS DECIDED TO EXPAND OUR CHC POPS
WEST TO THE NM BORDER. IN FACT...IF THE NORTH-WEST/CENTRAL COUNTIES
CAN HOLD ON TO THE MOISTURE THEY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR
TSTMS AS THEY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE SYN-SCALE LIFT.

A STRONG SHTWV FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH EJECTS OUT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUES WHILE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY OVER
THE SRN PLAINS. A 100+ KT 250MB JET WILL BE NOSING INTO THE NRN NM
AND THE PANHANDLES ON WED. THIS BRINGS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO THE MOTION OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS
TUES AND WED. THE 12Z RUNS BACKED OFF ON THE STRONG PUSH INTO OUR
CWA THAT WAS APPARENT IN THE 6Z MODEL RUNS. STILL PREFER THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE ETA ON TUE DEPICTING A SURGE DOWN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT
WEST AND INTO OUR NW COUNTIES...SOMETHING THAT OFTEN OCCURS. ETA AND
GFS SHOW THE FRONT THEN HANGING UP OVER THE PANHANDLES MOST OF TUE
EVE AND WED AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THEN WE MAY SEE ANOTHER PUSH TO THE FRONT BEHIND THIS WAVE
THAT WILL SEND IT SOUTHWARD INTO THE SPLNS WED EVE.
UNFORTUNATELY...GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
...DID NOT WANT TO MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. DID UP THE POPS
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS WED AND
THU. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE
COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT ON THU...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
LOWER TEMPS AT THIS POINT.

BY THURSDAY...EVEN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAKENING FRONT IN THE
AREA...LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SPEAK OF AS RIDGE BUILD IN OVER
TX. TROF OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. DEEPENS FRI AND SAT WITH RIDGE
AMPLIFYING DOWNSTREAM OVER WTX...ARGUING FOR CONTINUING THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. LOTS OF
VARIATION BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO PATH OF THIS
TROF...SO HAVE LEFT DRY FCST IN PLACE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  88  61  85 /  50  30  30  10
TULIA         63  88  62  86 /  50  30  30  10
PLAINVIEW     63  87  63  87 /  50  30  30  10
LEVELLAND     62  88  63  89 /  50  30  30  10
LUBBOCK       66  87  65  90 /  50  30  30  10
BROWNFIELD    64  87  64  90 /  50  30  30  10
CHILDRESS     67  89  68  91 /  30  40  30  20
SPUR          66  89  65  90 /  30  30  30  10
ASPERMONT     69  89  69  91 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

05/33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
600 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005

TXZ021>044-121100-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
600 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD. INSTABILITY AND WIND
PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS TO APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS...PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME
STRONG...PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
347 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NE AMHERST            34.02N 102.40W
09/11/2005  64 MPH           LAMB               TX   MESONET

            MEASURED BY THE TEXAS TECH WEST TEXAS MESONET

&&

GS