Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2005

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 285, NWS Lubbock, TX

August 27, 2005Bailey County, Texas

NWS Lubbock, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 27, 2005, 6:47 PM CDT for Bailey County, Texas. It was in force for 58 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Aug 27, 2005, 6:47 PM CDT (23:47 UTC)
Expired: Aug 27, 2005, 7:45 PM CDT
In force: 58 min
Issued by: NWS Lubbock, TX
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Bailey County, TX

The radar

The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 96 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 11.8 hours before the alert went out and 243 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 918 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -176 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1720 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 4 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 58 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 27, 3:30 PM CDT, 3 hours 17 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 27, 3:30 PM CDT, 3 hours 17 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
330 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

.SHORT TERM...
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY COUNTIES WITH AN OUTFLOW
SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTH OVER CASTRO-SWISHER COUNTIES...AS EVIDENT
IN THE ENHANCED CU FIELD ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AND ISOLATED CONVECTION
ON 88D REF DATA.  SPC MESOSCALE GRID DATA OVER THE REGION DEPICTS
THE TRANSLATION OF CONVECTION BEST PHASED WITH THE 700-500 MB
AVERAGE FLOW OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS.  MID-LEVEL
DRYING DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR FROM WSW OF ROSWELL TO ENE OF LUB-AMA
AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA OF
MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.  CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF
SEEN OVER UT/CO THIS AFTERNOON PROPAGATES EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE.

KINEMATICS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY.  GFS AND NAM BOTH IDENTIFY WELL WITH THIS
FEATURE...HOWEVER THE GFS TRACKS THE BRUNT OF THE WAVE ENERGY TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHEAST BEFORE STALLING/REDEVELOPING AND PULLING IT
SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE NAM FORECASTS
THE FEATURE TO PUSH MORE SOUTH OVER THE AREA WITH A WESTWARD SHIFT
LATE SUNDAY.  THE GFS HAD AN MCS SIGNAL IN THE 12Z OUTPUT YESTERDAY
WHICH FORECAST CONVECTION TO BE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WHILE
VERIFICATION HAD THE CONVECTION MORE SOUTH OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
EARLY TODAY.  THEREFORE...BASED ON WATER VAPOR TRENDS AND MODEL
CONTINUITY...WILL ADJUST THE NAM SOLUTION AND MAINTAIN/FORECAST A
WIDESPREAD EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM THE NNW OVERSPREADING THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  12Z AND FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MICROBURST POTENTIAL WITH THE ANTICIPATED MCS.
CELL MOVEMENT SHOULD INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD ISSUES...HOWEVER
BRIEF AND LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND STREAM OVERFLOW WILL BE A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS IMPACTED FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER THE
PAST WEEK.  BML.10

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER SOUTHWEST DESERTS WILL ALLOW A BIT OF A
TROUGH TO CARVE OUT OVER SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW. NAM VERSION IS A BIT WEAKER AND PREFERRED GIVEN
SUSPICIONS OF GFS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. HAVE THUS TRENDED
TOWARDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT...
LASTING INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING. RIDGE LINE SHOULD
THEN SLOWLY APPROACH AND THEN EXPAND MID WEEK AND BEYOND.
QUESTIONABLE HOW STRONG NEXT FRONT WILL BE GIVEN MASSIVE RIDGE...BUT
LATEST RUNS SEEM INSISTENT ON BOUNDARY AT LEAST MAKING IT IN BRIEFLY
AROUND WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. MINOR CHANGES TO MOST OF EXTENDED
PACKAGE.  MCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  84  59  88 /  80  50  50  40
TULIA         64  85  60  83 /  80  50  50  40
PLAINVIEW     64  84  61  83 /  80  50  50  40
LEVELLAND     66  86  62  86 /  70  50  50  40
LUBBOCK       66  85  62  86 /  70  50  50  40
BROWNFIELD    67  88  62  87 /  70  50  50  40
CHILDRESS     68  88  64  88 /  70  50  50  40
SPUR          69  88  65  87 /  60  50  50  40
ASPERMONT     70  90  65  86 /  60  50  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

10/05

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 27, 6:02 PM CDT, 45 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
602 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     HAIL             ABERNATHY               33.84N 101.85W
08/27/2005  1.50 INCH        HALE               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

KWIDELSK

Local storm report, Aug 27, 6:03 PM CDT, 44 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
603 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     HAIL             ABERNATHY               33.84N 101.85W
08/27/2005  1.75 INCH        HALE               TX   PUBLIC

&&

KWIDELSK

Local storm report, Aug 27, 6:04 PM CDT, 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
604 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             ABERNATHY               33.84N 101.85W
08/27/2005  2.00 INCH        HALE               TX   PUBLIC

&&

KWIDELSK

Local storm report, Aug 27, 6:43 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
643 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     HAIL             SLATON                  33.44N 101.64W
08/27/2005  1.00 INCH        LUBBOCK            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

KWIDELSK

The office that day

Everything else NWS Lubbock, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 27, 5:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LUB	Hale	38 min
Aug 27, 5:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LUB	Lubbock	43 min
Aug 27, 6:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LUB	Lubbock	31 min
Aug 27, 6:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LUB	Parmer	45 min
Aug 27, 6:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LUB	Lynn	39 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Texas, 2005 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.