Severe Thunderstorm Warning 245, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
355 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2005

.SHORT TERM...
THE ATMOS APPEARS TO BE GETTING PRIMED FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS
THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SPLNS AND SRN
PANHANDLE. AN OLD CDFNT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS APPARENT ON
SAT/RADAR/SFC OBS RUNNING FROM NEAR CVS TO ASPERMONT...WITH SLIGHTLY
BACKED WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS AND OTHER SUBTLE
BOUNDARIES SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL
LIFT ACROSS THE CWA. ADDITIONALLY...WV IMAGERY AND REGIONAL
PROFILERS SHOW A SHTWV MOVING THROUGH CO AND NM AT THIS TIME.
ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF LIFT
FROM THIS WAVE...IT SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS WTX TONIGHT.

TSTM DVLPMNT IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NM. ONE
QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY STORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE AXIS OF
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/BOUNDARY THRU EARLY EVE...AHEAD OF EXPECTED
CLUSTER COMING OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN EITHER CASE...IT
APPEARS THAT THE NW COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHC TO BE THE
FIRST TO ENCOUNTER TSTMS AND HAVE TAPERED POPS FROM NW TO SE
ACCORDINGLY. TSTM CHCS SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT AS SUBSEQUENT
CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. 850MB THETA-E AXIS IS
FCST TO RUN FROM NE NM INTO CENTRAL TX. ANY ORGANIZED MCS SHOULD
MOVE SE THRU THIS AXIS...WITH PRECISE TRACK OR TRACKS HARD TO
DISCERN...MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY FAVORING A TRACK ACROSS THE
CDS AREA/ROLLING PLAINS SO HAVE PUT HIGHEST POPS IN THAT REGION.
DVLPMNT OF 30+KT SERLY LLJ COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY FAST NW FLOW
RESULTS IN VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH MUCAPE
VALUES ALONG THETA-E AXIS FAVOR STRONG TO SVR TSTMS. HAVE DECIDED TO
INTRODUCE SVR WORDING INTO GRIDS FOR TONIGHT...WITH SVR WIND GUSTS
AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

AFTER THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING CONVECTION TOMORROW MORNING
EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPS WARMING
BACK UP INTO THE MID 90S FOR HIGHS SAT AFTN...MUCH LIKE TODAY.

.LONG TERM...
CURRENT INTRUSION OF MEXICAN MOISTURE UP AND INTO RIDGE SHOULD
SLOWLY THIN OUT OVER NEXT FEW DAYS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SUGGESTS
ALREADY SOME DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO EASTERN PART OF RIDGE ACROSS
RIO GRANDE AND LATEST NAM AND GFS ALSO SUGGEST GRADUALLY THINNER
MOISTURE. BUT APPEARS SOME DEGREE OF A HIGH LEVEL POTENTIAL
VORTICITY SHEAR ZONE WILL CONTINUE COMING UP FROM EXTREME NORTHERN
MEXICO ACROSS NEW MEXICO TOWARDS NORTHWEST TEXAS...AT LEAST INTO
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY.

THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE EXPECTED TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT CURRENTLY
WELL OFF WEST COAST AND OUTSIDE NAM DOMAIN. GFS APPEARS WELL
INITIALIZED...ON THE OTHER HAND...AND THE AMOUNT OF AMPLIFICATION IS
NOT HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN RECENT TRENDS AND WAVE-LENGTH
CONSIDERATIONS. GFS THUS IS PREFERRED MOVING THIS SYSTEM OUT ACROSS
THE WEST WITH A BIT MORE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT EVEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW WE HAVE ADDED A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WILL ONLY ACKNOWLEDGE THAT
HEIGHTS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MAY ALSO NOT BE ENOUGH TO
WARD OFF POTENTIAL FOR STORMS THEN AS WELL. SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
MODELS HAVE HAD CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY WITH RECENTLY IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. BOUNDARY THUS WOULD BECOME LESS OF A
FACTOR FOR PRODUCING A NECESSARY LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR THIS AREA BUT
CERTAINLY WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY IN CASE IT LINGERS.

SO...FOR THE FOURTH WE WILL RETAIN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEARS A BIT ON THE
HOT SIDE AND WE WILL UNDERCUT SLIGHTLY STAYING CLOSE TO OUR PREVIOUS
GRIDS...YET ACKNOWLEDGING AGAIN THAT STRONGER LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST
COMPONENT COULD VERY WELL BRING TEMPERATURES UP THAT HIGH.

RIDGE EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY A BIT MORE OUT OF MEXICO BY MID WEEK
BRINGING A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH MAY BRING THE
BOUNDARY CLOSE TO OUR EASTERN ZONES AGAIN THURSDAY-ISH OR SO.  TOO
FAR OUT AND UNCERTAIN IF WILL HAVE CONVECTIVE IMPACT ANYWAY. A BIT
OF A STRONGER AND MORE MONSOONAL LOOKING MOISTURE FLOW SHOULD THEN
ENSUE UP THROUGH WESTERN PART OF RIDGE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...LIKELY LEAVING HIGH PLAINS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF SHARP AXIS
DRY AND WARM. FEW OVERALL CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.   MCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  68  94  65 /  30  50  10  20
TULIA         91  67  93  67 /  30  50  10  20
PLAINVIEW     91  67  93  69 /  30  40  10  20
LEVELLAND     95  68  95  68 /  20  40  10  20
LUBBOCK       96  69  96  69 /  20  30  10  20
BROWNFIELD    97  70  98  69 /  20  30  10  20
CHILDRESS     94  70  94  72 /  30  50  20  20
SPUR          97  71  95  69 /  20  40  20  20
ASPERMONT     97  73  95  73 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

08/05

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