Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
348 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2005

.SHORT TERM...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE SOUTH AND
ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON ON SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KTS.
DRYLINE HAS NOT MOVED MUCH ALL DAY AS MID 60 DEWPOINTS ADVECTED INTO
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO. BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STILL
CAKED UP JUST EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE ELEVATED CONVECTION
IS UNDERWAY. GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICE TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATING BEST CAPE
AXIS OF 2700 TO 3200 J/KG WITH LEAST AMOUNT OF CIN OVER THE WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS. STORMS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
AREA...PROPAGATING EAST AND AFFECTING ROUGHLY A BOVINA TO MORTON TO
DENVER CITY LINE BY 6 OR 7 PM. BIGGEST CONCERN HERE IS THE FORWARD
PROGRESS OF THE STORMS. INSTABILITY IS CERTAINLY THERE...BUT BIG
CONCERN IS THE EVENTUAL FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE STORMS AS THE
DRYLINE MOVES VERY LITTLE EAST.

MORNING SYNOPTIC SCALE ANALYSIS INDICATED WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW BUT
700MB DIFFLUENCE IN PLACE COULD CAUSE SOME TRAINING OF SLOW MOVING
CELLS. LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS A GOOD BET AS SOME TRAINING ECHOES
DEVELOP IN WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

ACTIVITY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE PRIMARILY A WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
EVENT AS THE BEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW SHOULD
FEED INTO DEVELOPING STORMS AS THEY SLOWLY MOVE ENE. WILL BE TOUGH
TO GET MUCH DEVELOPMENT PAST THE CAPROCK WITH LACK OF FOCUSED
LIFTING MECHANISM AND WARMER 700MB TEMPS. DO BELIEVE THE ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS STORMS LOSE PUNCH WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS STILL A POSSIBILITY OVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS...BUT GREATEST POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER THE WEST.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDS FAIRLY TIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. WILL PLAY THE DRYLINE A TAD
FURTHER EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CENTRAL AND
EAST.

INHERITED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
POPS. WENT WITH 40 POPS ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. KEPT 20S OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND 30S OVER
THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS.

KW

.LONG TERM...
NO SIG CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SLOSHING DRYLINE EXPECTED. BEST
PUSH OF THE DRYLINE TO THE EAST PROGGED TO BE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
BACKS WINDS SUFFICIENTLY TO KEEP MOISTURE BACKED UP INTO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO. WILL TREND GRIDS/ZONES THIS DIRECTION. FORECAST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORE QUESTIONABLE AS GFS MOVES UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS WHILE ECMWF IS ABOUT A DAY LATER. THEN THERE ARE
SUGGESTIONS THAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TIME WILL TELL. PREVIOUS FORECAST HANDLES WELL ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME THAT NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  91  59  92 /  40  10  20  10
TULIA         63  92  62  91 /  30  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     65  92  64  92 /  30  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     65  92  63  93 /  30  10  20  10
LUBBOCK       67  93  66  93 /  30  20  20  10
BROWNFIELD    65  93  66  95 /  30  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     68  94  68  92 /  20  20  20  20
SPUR          67  93  69  94 /  20  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     69  94  70  95 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

17/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2005

TXZ021>044-071630-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
GARZA-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KENT-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-
STONEWALL-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
1130 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA....GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE
FROM MEMPHIS TO POST.

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A WEAK DRYLINE ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LOCATED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO BORDER BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE A CAPPING INVERSION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY CAUSE A BREAKING OF THE CAP
ALONG PROTIONS OF THE DRYLINE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING.  STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREATS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SLOW TO
THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
MAY ALSO LIMIT THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER DARK WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
4 PM.

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