Freeze Warning 3, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
300 AM CST MON NOV 14 2005

.SHORT TERM...
LATEST MODEL RUN SHOWS LEE SIDE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE AREA
TODAY AND AS A RESULT WINDS TO BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 70S TODAY. WINDS MAY GET A
LITTLE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL A NICE DAY ON TAP.

MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER WE WILL
SEE THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA DURING THE EARLY EVENING. AS A RESULT THE STRONGEST COLD
FRONT OF THIS FALL SEASON WILL MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEST TEXAS SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM AND INCREASE
TO 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH POSSIBLE PRIOR TO SUNRISE
ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES. WILL ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
THE CWFA TO BEGIN AT 09Z TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS INDICATED
8-10 MB PRESSURE RISES PER 3 HOURS AS FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY SOUTH
THROUGH THE CWFA TUESDAY MORNING. WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS WE WILL
LIKELY SEE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AS WELL.  XI

.LONG TERM...
STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
ADVISORY THROUGH 21Z AS MIXING MAY KEEP STRONG WINDS UP LONGER THAN
GUIDANCE AND MODELS ARE ADVERTISING. IN ANY EVENT...GRADIENT TO
RELAX QUICKLY BY TUESDAY EVENING AS 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THAT WILL MEAN IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN VERY DRY AND COLD AIRMASS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING FOR
ALL OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...AND A FEW DEGREES
BELOW FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS. A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED FOR
THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE NOT HAD A FREEZE THIS SEASON.

LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES AT
850 MB ARE PROGGED TO ONLY CLIMB TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES CELSIUS. THUS IT
MAY BE DIFFICULT TO CLIMB TO 50 DEGREES OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES.
PATTERN OF MEAN RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
EAST TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. AS WAVES MOVES SOUTHEAST IN
THIS FLOW...THEY WILL USHER IN COLD FRONTS. LOOKS LIKE ONE FOR
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SATURDAY. HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL WITH BELOW FREEZING MINIMUMS LOOKING COMMON NEXT WEEK ON THE
CAPROCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  32  43  19 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         73  34  45  21 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     73  36  46  22 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     75  36  47  22 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       74  37  47  23 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    73  37  48  23 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     73  39  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          75  41  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     75  44  51  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAILEY...BRISCOE...CASTRO...CHILDRESS...
COCHRAN...COTTLE...CROSBY...DICKENS...FLOYD...GARZA...HALE...
HALL...HOCKLEY...KENT...KING...LAMB...LUBBOCK...LYNN...MOTLEY...
PARMER...STONEWALL...SWISHER...TERRY...AND YOAKUM.

&&

11/06

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