Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Lubbock, TX

000 
WGUS74 KLUB 281233
FFSLUB

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
729 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005

TXC445-281415-
TERRY TX-
729 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 915 AM CDT FOR TERRY
COUNTY...

THE SHERIFFS OFFICE IN BROWNFIELD REPORTED FLOODING ON PLAINS 
HIGHWAY. CARS WERE REPORTED UNDERWATER.

AT 723 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY 
RAINFALL OVER TERRY COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH 
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. ADDITIONAL 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ARE LIKELY THROUGH 9 AM. 

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY. 
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS
IMMINENT. MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS
THE ROADWAY. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL
ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3298 10209 3337 10209 3337 10257 3297 10256

$$

KW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
425 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005

.SHORT TERM...
MORNING WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST
TEXAS. LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AIDED BY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON EASTERLY FLOW...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING. DEFORMATION ZONE ALSO APPEARS TO BE
SETTING UP OVER WEST TEXAS AS BANDED PRECIP WITH TRAINING ECHOES
CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A MORTON TO LEVELLAND
TO POST LINE. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LIKELY IN
THESE AREAS WITH ISOLATED TOTALS TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO MINOR LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.

DECENT JET ENERGY FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY GOING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. WILL KEEP DEFINITE POPS GOING OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH 18Z. MADE CHANGES TO TEMP
GRIDS AS MOIST GROUND COUPLED WITH AMPLE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S. AREAS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM COULD EASILY HAVE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST AND TEMPS NEAR 80.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING WET SOLUTIONS TODAY AS ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS CONTINUE. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION. ANY BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT FLOW UP TO
500MB WILL MAKE FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

KEPT POPS GOING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.

KW

.LONG TERM...
WILL MAKE ONLY A MINOR NUMBER OF CHANGES TO THE GRIDS GIVEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND HANDLING BY PREVIOUS FCST. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WEAK
UPPER FLOW WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHINESS ALOFT. COMBINED WITH MOIST
GENERALLY UPSLOPE FLOW WOULD EXPECT PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
WEAKLY FORCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. PRETTY
STRONG COLD FRONT WITH ABUNDANT POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND CHC AT
POST-FRONTAL PRECIP EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. SHOULD SEE
TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL AND WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
NUMBERS. THEN FOR TUESDAY GENERALLY PREFER GFS HANDLING OF UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE NRN CALIF COAST. THIS WOULD BRING A LITTLE SHARPER
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL BUMP
TUESDAY POPS SLIGHTLY...INTO CHC CATEGORY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST WARMUP IN STORE LATE IN THE WEEK ALTHOUGH WILD CARD IS AN
UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE REGION FROM NRN MEXICO BY FRIDAY. TOO
FAR OUT TO LATCH ONTO ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  58  82  54 /  40  30  30  40
TULIA         78  58  79  56 /  40  40  30  40
PLAINVIEW     77  59  81  57 /  50  40  30  40
LEVELLAND     74  60  84  59 /  80  40  30  30
LUBBOCK       75  60  83  59 /  70  40  30  30
BROWNFIELD    72  61  84  61 /  80  50  30  30
CHILDRESS     79  62  79  59 /  40  50  40  40
SPUR          75  63  84  62 /  70  60  40  30
ASPERMONT     75  64  84  62 /  80  60  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

17/07