Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 132104
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
402 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

MOC099-132115-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0199.000000T0000Z-050813T2115Z/
JEFFERSON MO-
402 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY...

AT 401 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH OVER MURPHY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

ALSO...ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS SOUTHWEST OF 
BARNHART...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

LAT...LON 3850 9055 3824 9049 3827 9037 3841 9037
      3850 9042

$$
BYRD

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 132118
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
417 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

MOC099-132127-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0199.000000T0000Z-050813T2115Z/
JEFFERSON MO-
417 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY
HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM.

LAT...LON 3850 9055 3824 9049 3827 9037 3841 9037
      3850 9042

$$
BYRD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
323 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
330 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN QUES THIS PKG TO BE POPS AND QPF ALG FNTL ZN OVR FA NR TERM AND
THEN TEMPS AND POPS IN XTNDD. GOOD INITIALIZATION ON 12 MDL RUNS
WITH MAIN BAND OF WLYS N OF FA WITH 500MB S/WV FM NRN RCKY MTNS SW
INTO NRN CAL. 500MB RDG OVR SERN U.S. AND S/WV DAMPS AS IT MOVS E
ACRS GT LKS BY 36HRS. UPR FLOW RMNS ZONAL ACRS CTRL MS VLY THRU NR
TERM AND THEN BECMS WK NWLY AS 500MB RDG MIGRATES WWD ACRS SRN U.S.
DURG XTNDD PD.

SFC FNT TO RMN QSTNRY ACRS RGN THRU 48HRS WITH MINOR OSCILLATIONS AS
WK WVS ALFT MOV ACRS AREA. BROAD AREA OF LGT-MDT PCPN OVR NRN MO AND W
CTRL IL THIS MRNG WITH TSRA DVLPG ERLY THIS AFTN IN CLD FREE RGN
TO S. XPCT GREATER AREAL CVRG TDA AS S/WV MOVS ACRS MO THIS AFTN
AND EVE. HV INCRSD POPS SLIGHTLY FOR TNGT AND ADJ QPF WITH LTST
GUID. THINK GFS STIL HAVING FEEDBACK PROBS AND LEANED MORE TWD NAM
FOR QPF.

TEMPS TO BE A CAT OR TWO COOLER NR TERM WITH PCPN AND INCRS IN
CLDNS AND SAGGING FNT.

WL CONT CHCS FOR TSRA THRU ERLY XTNDD AND AGAIN NR END AS FNT
BECMS QSTNRY ACRS RGN. TEMPS TO BE NR NRML.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ST LOUIS        70  82  68  83 /  90  60  50  50
QUINCY          64  79  63  81 /  80  50  40  40
COLUMBIA        67  80  64  81 /  90  60  60  40
JEFFERSON CITY  67  81  65  81 /  90  60  60  50
SALEM           71  83  67  81 /  60  60  50  50
FARMINGTON      71  83  66  82 /  70  50  50  50

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
135 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-141200-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOND IL-BOONE-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-
CLINTON IL-COLE-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-GREENE IL-
IRON-JEFFERSON-JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON-
MADISON IL-MARION-MARION IL-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-
MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-
SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST. CLAIR IL-ST. FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-
ST. LOUIS CITY-STE. GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
135 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...WITH COVERAGE IN A MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO THE SOUTH...AS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
INTERSECTS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZED HAIL POSSIBLE.

DUE TO THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
OUR AREA AND THE HIGH LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THAT EXIST...
THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE HEIGHTENED TONIGHT FOR AREAS
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL BE LOCALLY POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THAT
TIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION BY LATE WEEK...
WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY LATE THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

TES