Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005

.SHORT TERM...HAVE ISSUED AND UPDATE THIS EVENING FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS. PICTURES FROM SPACE
INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIGINATING FROM THE
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH DESERT PROPOGATING WEST OVER NORTHERN
LA COUNTY THIS EVENING.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE REDEVELOPING
NEAR BIG BEAR AT THIS TIME AND CONVECTION WAS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN
LIMIT OF THE PROPOGATING FEATURE. NO SOUNDING FROM EDWARDS THOUGH
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATED A SHARP BOUNDARY OF INSTABILITY EAST OF AN
APPLE VALLEY-BIG BEAR LINE AT 0HR. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE AREA AS THE LOW PRES SYSTEM PERSIST OFFSHORE AND LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN OVER LA COUNTY AND A THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.

LONG TERM...AVIATION...MARINE DISCUSSION WRITTEN BY PREVIOUS SHIFT.

.LONG TERM...DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL EXPECTED TO KEEP THINGS DRY
WED-SUN. A WEAK TROF WILL KEEP A FAIRLY ROBUST MARINE LAYER IN PLACE
WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...MARINE LYR DEPTH CONTINUES TO RANGE BETWEEN 3000 AND 3500
FEET. SCT-BKN CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL AIRPORTS REMAINDER
OF AFTERNOON WITH BKN-OVC CONDTIONS RETURNING QUICKLY THIS EVENING
(INCLUDING KLAX AND KLGB)...AND SPREADING INTO THE VALLEYS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT (INCLUDING KBUR AND KVNY). LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN CEILING
HEIGHTS...GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FEET ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAN
BERNARDINO RANGE AND BANNING PASS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY SWELL HEADED FOR SO CAL FROM A BIG STORM IN THE
SOUTH PACIFIC EARLY LAST WEEK. LATEST SWELL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
JUST A TAD ON THE SWELL HEIGHTS AS THEY ARRIVE INTO SO CALL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, BUT THE RESULTING WAVES MAY APPROACH HIGH SURF
CRITERIA. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS YET, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

FORWOOD
PREVIOUS SHIFT WOFFORD/GOMBERG