Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
140 PM PST THU FEB 24 2005

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW FROM THE
NORTHEAST COMBINED WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY IS CAUSING SOME
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY, BUT INTERIOR AREAS MAY GET A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM,
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH
LARGE HAIL AS CAPE VALUES ARE CLOSE TO 800 LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW
MOVES VERY LITTLE AND WE STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SO WILL LEAVE IN LOW TSTORM POPS AGAIN FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPS AND SKY COVER ALL EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT
THE SAME AS TODAY.

BY SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST TO GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST. OVERALL, LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE, THOUGH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW MAY LEAD TO SLIGHT COOLING ALONG THE
COAST.

.LONG TERM...LAST TWO GFS RUNS REALLY HAVE SCALED BACK ON THE AMOUNT
OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE SPLIT FLOW ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. THE NAM SEEMS TO STILL BE LEANING TOWARDS A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN AND THE CANADIAN DOES AS WELL. BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
VERY LOW. EITHER WAY, WHATEVER COMES THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK WILL
BE WEAK AND SHOULDNT POSE MUCH OF A THREAT. HAVE DECIDED TO JUST
LOWER POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY RATHER THAN REMOVE THEM ALTOGETHER
SINCE THE NAM AND CANADIAN ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE GFS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).

&&

WOFFORD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
630 AM PST THU FEB 24 2005

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-251400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
600 AM PST THU FEB 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SWEET