High Wind Watch 1, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
310 AM PDT SAT OCT 15 2005

.SHORT TERM...CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW WITH THIS APPROACHING
SYSTEM. WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE BAY AREA THIS
MORNING BRING VERY LIGHT PRECIP THERE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE
FRONT PRETTY MUCH WASHING OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CENTRAL COAST,
BUT WILL LEAVE IN 20-30 POPS THERE THIS MORNING. ANY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS MUCH COOLER TEMPS. THE BIG QUESTION IS,
HOW MUCH WIND? THE ANSWER TO THIS QUESTION WILL BE DETERMINED
LARGELY BY THE TRACK THE UPPER LOW DECIDES TO TAKE. THE NAM IS STILL
GOING WITH A MORE INLAND TRACK, WITH THE CORE OF STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS MOVING OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS ESSENTIALLY
MOVES THE UPPER LOW RIGHT OVER OUR HEADS, KEEPING THE CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS WELL TO OUR WEST BUT THEN SHOWS STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER THE LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY POORER PERFORMANCE OF THE NAM VS THE GFS LATELY,
IM INCLINED TO FOLLOW THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER,
EVEN A SHIFT OF 100 MILES OR SO EAST OF THE GFS POSITION COULD
RESULT IN A VERY STRONG WIND EVENT FOR OUR MOUNTAINS.

HAVING SAID THIS, I FEEL ITS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR THE MTNS OF SBA, VENTURA, AND LA COUNTIES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY,
WITH THE WATCH CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY FOR VENTURA AND LA
COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND FOR THIS EVENT, PROBABLY
BEST TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND LATER SHIFTS CAN
ADJUST/DROP/EXTEND AS WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. ALSO EXPECTING MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAY ALSO NEED A WAD FOR SRN SBA COUNTY THIS EVENING
AS WINDS FUNNEL THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE.

NOW FOR THE RAIN CHANCES. THE INITIAL FRONT WILL DIE OUT THIS
MORNING, BUT INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS IS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT AT
LEAST 20-30 POPS ACROSS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
IS NOT REALLY A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR RAIN FOR US, BUT THE AIRMASS
IS REASONABLY UNSTABLE DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT SO HARD TO ARGUE WITH
AT LEAST SOME LOW POPS IN THERE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE REALLY TOUGH TO FIGURE WITH REGARDS TO RAIN
CHANCES. THE GFS IS PICKING UP A LOT OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WRAPS THAT MOISTURE AROUND FROM THE EAST INTO SO CAL. COMBINE THIS
WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -22 JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND LIS AS LOW
AS -3 AND WE CANT EVEN RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME I CANT
REALLY SEE WHERE ALL THIS MOISTURE WILL COME FROM SO IM NOT REALLY
BUYING INTO ALL THE PRECIP IT GENERATES. I THINK CONTINUING THE
20-30 POPS ACROSS OUR AREA IS GOOD FOR NOW AND WE CAN SEE HOW THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...MODELS AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL LIFT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE LEFT OUT MARINE LYR
CLOUDS FOR NOW BUT WE COULD SEE SOME RETURNING TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM UP AND THE MARINE INVERSION RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CLOUDS MADE IT TO THE CENTRAL COAST
BUT HAVE NOT MADE MUCH PROGRESS AROUND THE POINT DURING THE NIGHT.
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF THE PAC COLD FRONT BETWEEN
18-20Z FOR THIS AREA. CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES AND WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS. THEN
CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCT-BKN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MAINLY CIRRUS DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION
AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE STALLED WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG FOR
COASTAL SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE CLOSER BEFORE LOWER CLOUDS MAKE AN IMPACT ON
TERMINALS. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY AFTER 20Z BUT EXPECT
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL SITES (ESPECIALLY ANTELOPE VALLEY) THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...BOLDT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
604 PM PDT FRI OCT 14 2005

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-151300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
604 PM PDT FRI OCT 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... THROUGH TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE AREA
COULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW THAT
TRANSITIONS TO A SANTA ANA EVENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL APPROACH OR POSSIBLY EXCEED GALE FORCE
SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASING NORTHWEST
SWELLS WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL SURF CONDITIONS ALONG
THE WEST FACING BEACHES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

* GALE WARNING...............SEE FZUS56 KLOX - CWFLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SIRARD