Flash Flood Warning 59, NWS Los Angeles, CA

000 
WGUS76 KLOX 172202
FFSLOX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
303 PM PDT MON OCT 17 2005

CAC037-172230-
LOS ANGELES CA-
303 PM PDT MON OCT 17 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM PDT FOR  
THE FOOTHILL BURN AREA NEAR NEWHALL IN CENTRAL LOS ANGELES COUNTY...

AT 247 PM PDT...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN CONTINUED TO MOVE 
NORTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL LOS ANGELES COUNTY. AT AROUND 230 
PM...APPROXIMATELY 4 FEET OF WATER AND MUD WAS REPORTED IN THE 
POLYNESIAN MOBILE HOME PARK IN NEWHALL...AND WATER WAS REPORTED OVER 
THE SIERRA HIGHWAY IN THE SAME VICINITY. ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS 
THAT PRODUCED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE FOOTHILL 
BURN AREA...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING RAINFALL UP TO ONE 
QUARTER INCH PER HOUR WILL MOVE OVER THE FOOTHILL BURN AREA THROUGH 
330 PM.

RESIDENTS AND MOTORISTS IN AND BELOW THE FOOTHILL BURN AREA SHOULD 
BE ALERT TO HEAVY MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS WHICH MAY BLOCK ROADS AND 
CULVERTS. POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FLOODING AND PROPERTY LOSS COULD 
RESULT IN AREAS WHERE RUNOFF IS RESTRICTED OR BLOCKED.

IN ADDITION TO FLASH FLOODING...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE DEBRIS
FLOWS IN THE FOOTHILL BURN AREA...ACCORDING TO THRESHOLDS PROVIDED BY
THE USGS. AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE POLYNESIAN MOBILE HOME PARK AND
RESIDENCES DIRECTLY BELOW THE BURN AREA.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. 
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. 
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE 
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS 
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY 
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 3430 11848 3438 11838 3445 11846 3434 11854

$$

MOYER/JACOBSON

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT MON OCT 17 2005

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS CENTERED AROUND 300 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LOS ANGELES...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH TONIGHT. DURING THIS TIME...THERE WILL BE A MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. CURRENT DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING AN AREA
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. A BAND OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST
OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY. THIS BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT
COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...MAINLY
NEAR THE BURN AREAS.  FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE FLOOD WATCH...PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT (LAXFFALOX).
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE
STRONG SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT HAS GENERATED GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. WIND ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT FOR
THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH THIS MORNING...FOR
MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY STATEMENT
(LAXNPWLOX).

LATEST NAM AND GFS MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING UPPER LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...TRACKING THE UPPER LOW NEAR YUMA
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DRY AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
TO END ACROSS ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

*** LONG TERM AND AVIATION FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.LONG TERM...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER THIS
STORM DEPARTS...LOOK FOR WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA BY LATE
IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. LATE IN THE WEEKEND A
PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
FAIR AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH SOME MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS AND FOG RETURNING TO OUR COASTS WEDNESDAY...NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...AND THURSDAY FOR THE CALIFORNIA BIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING. A SECOND
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE NIGHT. CIGS AND VIS SHOULD STAY
ABOVE VFR THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING EXCEPT BRIEFLY LOWER UNDER HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

KLAX WILL HAVE EASTERLY WINDS 4 TO 8 KT LASTING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
FLOOD ADVISORY (SEE LAXFLSLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/DANIELSON
AVIATION...RORKE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1055 AM PDT MON OCT 17 2005

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-181300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
1055 AM PDT MON OCT 17 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 300 NM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OF LOS
ANGELES. THE COUNTER CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW HAS
BROUGHT STRONG WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF THE REGION SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF
FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE RECENT HARVARD AND TOPANGA BURN AREAS. THIS
MORNING...AN EAST WEST BAND OF SHOWERS SET UP OVER THE BURN AREAS
AND...ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO PRODUCE
IMMEDIATE FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS...THE CONTINUOUS TRAINING
OF SHOWERS OVER THE SAME AREAS RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING TO
WHERE WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED. THESE MAY HAVE TO BE REISSUED OR
EXTENDED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING...BUT REDEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS SAN DIEGO COUNTY. THEREFORE...THE THREAT
FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE LATER TODAY AND THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT HAS
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR BOTH VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTIES FROM NOW THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY.

STRONG WINDS ARE CONTINUING THIS MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN IN EFFECT SINCE SUNDAY FOR
THESE EAST WINDS DUE...AGAIN...TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER
LOW SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH. WIDESPREAD WINDS 45 TO 55 MPH HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED...WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING GUSTS OVER 70 MPH.
AT THIS TIME...NO DAMAGE FROM THESE WINDS HAS BEEN REPORTED.

* FLOOD WATCH................SEE WGUS66 KLOX - FFALOX FOR DETAILS *

* FLOOD ADVISORY.............SEE WGUS86 KLOX - FLSLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND
CONTINUES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...TAKING THE THREAT FOR CONTINUED
HEAVY RAIN WITH IT. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES
UNTIL MID DAY TUESDAY...WITH THE FLOOD THREAT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* FLOOD WATCH................SEE WGUS66 KLOX - FFALOX FOR DETAILS *

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WOFFORD