Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PST FRI JAN 7 2005

.SHORT TERM...CYCLONIC CENTER INITIALIZED APPROXIMATELY 400 MILES
WEST OF PIEDRAS BLANCAS...SHIP OBSERVATION JUST EAST OF THE 993 MB
CENTER EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATED 995 MB...WHICH CONFIRMED
INITIALIZATION. LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW WAS ACCELERATING NEAR SHORE
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
WIND WARNING AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACCELERATES OVER THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. PRECIPITION WAS LIGHT
AND WAS MOVING INLAND OVER THE FAR NORTH AND CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
COAST. SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES ASHORE NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AFTER
SUNRISE AND STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE BIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS AS WELL.
NEARLY WEST/EAST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA. THE
SYSTEM APPROACHING NEAR 32/140W THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA SAT AND MOVE ASHORE
OVERNIGHT. WITH PWAT AXIS AROUND ONE INCH OVER THE BIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST AND WILL CONTINUE FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM WARNING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL AND EXPECT HEAVY SNOW DURING PERIODS
THROUGH SUNDAY. AS COOLER AIR SURGES SOUTH REINFORCING A SURFACE
BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN PAC THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE TWO FEATURES MAY COMBINE NEARSHORE AND RAIN RATES
WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA MON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE.

.LONG TERM...WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS TUE AS LINGERING SHOWERS EXIT
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUE AFTERNOON. LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND DRY DESCENDING NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDED WITH SHIFTING
THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST AND NO CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WINTER STORM WARNING (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING/WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

FORWOOD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
600 AM PST THU JAN 6 2005

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-071400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
600 AM PST THU JAN 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A LOW PRESSURE APPOACHING THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE ASHORE AND SPREAD WIDESPREAD PRECIPITION OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LIKELY RISE THROUGH THE EVENT THOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE SIGINIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR AROUND 5000 FEET
OVERNIGHT.

* WINTER STORM WATCH.........SEE WWUS46 KLOX - WSWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND IN THE
MEANTIME A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE
SOUTH AND PERSIST OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE MOIST AIR OVER THE AREA AND THE COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY. A LESS ORGANIZED SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE MONDAY AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.  TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
MONDAY COULD BE CLOSE TO 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 4 TO 8
INCHES AT COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE DURATION AND SEVERITY OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CAUSE MAJOR FLOODING PROBLEMS IN MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE NEAR RIVERS...STREAMS...AND BURN AREAS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO 7000 FEET OR POSSIBLY HIGHER BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

* WINTER STORM WATCH.........SEE WWUS46 KLOX - WSWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK.........SEE FGUS76 KLOX - ESFLOX FOR DETAILS *

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FORWOOD