Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PST SAT FEB 19 2005

.SHORT TERM...
UPR LOW NR 37/128 STILL SPINNING COPIOUS MOISTURE OVER SRN CA. 06Z NAM
AND GFS INITIALIZED WELL. MDLS DIFFER SOME OVER NEXT 48 HOURS ABOUT
EXACT PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW BOTH ARE PRETTY SIMILAR BY 60
HOURS. LITTLE DETAILS ASIDE ALL MDLS AGREE THAT LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN PHASE IN WITH PAC NW TROF WITH A REDELOPING
CLOSED LOW AT 30/120 BY 00Z SUN. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTH
AND EAST ARRIVING AT POINT CONCEPTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A SOGGY LONG WEEKEND AS INPULSE AFTER IMPULSE
WILL BE SPUN AROUND THE LOW AND SLAMMED INTO THE COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN VARIED WEATHER PATTERN FROM NOW UNTIL MONDAY AS THE WEATHER
WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASENT INBETWEEN IMPULSES AND THEN DOWNRIGHT
TREACHERIOUS IN THE MIDST OF IMPULSES. SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE VERY LIKELY EVERYTIME AN IMPULSE ROLLS OVER THE AREA.

ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNSTABLE TODAY AND THUNDER SHOULD OCCUR AT VARIOUS
TIMES THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

SNOW LEVELS WILL DIP SLIGHTLY AND SNOW WILL NOT REALLY LET UP TIL THE
LOW IS AWAY SO EXTENDED WSW TIL TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOIST NW
FLOW MOVES IN AND LASTS TIL WED PM AS UPPER LOW MAKES LAND FALL AND
MOVES EASTWARD. A LITTLE RIDGE POPS UP LATE THURSDAY AND THEN LASTS
INTO THE WEEKEND FOR DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
FLOOD ADVISORY (SEE LAXFLSLOX).
WINTER STORM WARNING (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).

&&

RORKE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
600 AM PST SAT FEB 19 2005

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-201400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
600 AM PST SAT FEB 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH. EXPECT SOME LOCAL FLOODING ON
ROADWAYS AND IN INTERSECTIONS. ROCKSLIDES AND MUDSLIDE MAY ALSO POSE
A PROBLEM.

SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES TODAY. SNOW LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE AVERAGING 6000
TO 6500 FEET AND SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 5500 FEET TONIGHT. 12 TO
24 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 6000 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH
WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
35 KNOTS...SMALL HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND ROUGH SEAS.

* WINTER STORM WARNING.......SEE WWUS46 KLOX - WSWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOODING
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED BY THE VERY WET
WEATHER SO FAR THIS WINTER... ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL INCREASE THE RISK
OF ROCK AND MUDSLIDE ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS NEAR
THE BURN AREAS.

IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...PERIODS
OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
5500 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH TUE SHOULD RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE 7000 FEET.
LESSER ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 5500
AND 7000 FEET. GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
LOCAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF BLOWING SNOW AND DENSE FOG COULD REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

* WINTER STORM WARNING.......SEE WWUS46 KLOX - WSWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FLOOD WATCH................SEE WGUS66 KLOX - FFALOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KAPLAN