Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
135 PM PST FRI FEB 11 2005

.SHORT TERM...RAIN AMOUNTS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED OVER LA
COUNTY TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD ONE INCH AMOUNTS AND SEVERAL AREAS
APPROACHING 2 INCHES. HIGHEST SO FAR IS OPIDS CAMP IN THE SAN
GABRIEL MTNS AT OVER 3 INCHES. INTERESTING SCENARIO FOR TONIGHT. SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON MOVING NORTHEAST AT AROUND 15 MPH. LAST FEW IMAGES SEEM TO
SHOW MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE MOVEMENT SO PERHAPS ITS
FINALLY STARTED TO MAKE THAT TURN TO THE EAST THAT WE EXPECTED.
EITHER WAY, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GET PULLED INTO THE LOW FROM
THE SOUTH WITH AREAS FROM LA COUNTY EAST GETTING THE BRUNT OF IT.
NAM SHOWS ANOTHER INCH AT LEAST FOR LA COUNTY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 2 INCHES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS IS
QUITE A BIT DRIER, BUT GIVEN HOW MUCH AS FALLEN AND HOW WARM AND
MOIST THIS SYSTEM IS, I TEND TO FAVOR THE NAM. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL
TAPER OFF DRAMATICALLY WEST OF LA COUNTY, WITH JUST SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER VTU/LA COUNTIES, THOUGH THERE HAVE ONLY
BEEN ONE OR TWO LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED SO FAR AND TEMPS ALOFT
ARENT THAT COLD.

SNOW LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART ARE VERY HIGH. EARLY ON IN THE EVENT
THE AIRMASS WAS DRY ENOUGH THAT SNOW LEVELS LOCALLY WERE DOWN TO
AROUND 5000 FEET. WE DONT EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER BELOW 8000
FEET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT.

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT, WITH A LINGERING
CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH MID-DAY SATURDAY OVER LA COUNTY. THE REST
OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK DRY WITH STILL SOME CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL PEAK MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN AS AN
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT OFF WEST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE GFS
SHOWS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
COAST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN MOVING INTO LA COUNTY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT, A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP SO CAL IN A WET PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT, GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH CUTOFF LOWS, TRYING TO TIME THESE
INDIVIDUAL EVENTS IS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD
BRUSH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL
WE CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SOME HEAVY PRECIP IF THE JET CAN TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...(SEE LAXMWSLOX)

&&

WOFFORD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
600 AM PST FRI FEB 11 2005

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-121400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
600 AM PST FRI FEB 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

A WET STORM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. IT WILL BRING HAZARDOUS
WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS TO 55 MPH WILL BE COMMON. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS. THE EAST
EXPOSED AVALON HARBOR WILL ALSO BE THREATENED BY EAST WINDS AND
WAVES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD TODAY. ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS COASTS AND VALLEYS WITH UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ROAD FLOODING.

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK......SEE FZUS56 KLOX - SRFLOX FOR DETAILS *

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

RAIN WILL RETURN TUESDAY TO THE SOUTHLAND AND MAY WELL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

RORKE