Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PST SUN JAN 9 2005

SHORT TERM...
ACTIVE BAND OF WEATHER IS NOW OVER SRN CA MOSTLY FOCUSED ON VENTURA
COUNTY. SOME DYNAMICS WITH THIS AND SEVERAL LARGE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN PRODUCED BOTH IN LOX AND SGX CWAS. RAINFALL RATES ARE HIGHEST IN
VENTURA COUNTY WITH RATES OF ABOUT A HALF INCH PER HOUR IN MANY
LOCATIONS. SRN SBA COUNTY HAS THE NEXT BEST RATES. SATELLITE IMAGRY
SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE RAINFALL RATES WILL WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH LATE MORNING WILL HAVE TO ADD SRN SBA COUNTY.

RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BANDS FINALLY SPIN
THEMSELFS OUT. BUT THIS LULL WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG.

UPPER LOW WHICH ACTUALLY SET UP THE FLOW PATTERN THAT SPAWNED THE
DRENCHING RAIN IS GOING TO MOVE FROM OFF THE OREGON COAST DOWN THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS I-80 INTO RENO BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A SHARP FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH SRN
CA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. ACCORDING TO THE 06Z ETA...
WHICH AGREES WELL WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND IN GENERAL HAS BEEN DOING
VERY WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE FRONT WILL WILL ENTER SLO COUNTY
AROUND 8PM TONIGHT REACH THE CITY OF SBA BY 4AM TUESDAY AND THEN REACH
LAX AROUND 900 AM. RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
WILL BE QUITE INTENSE WITH THE FRONT WITH RAINFALL RATES NEAR AN INCH
PER HOUR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 6PM TONGIHT TO NOON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES COASTS/VLYS AND 2 TO 5 INCHS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL MOSTLY LIKELY EXTEND THE HYDROLOGICAL
HAZARDS INTO TUESDAY.

BIG COOLING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 4500 FEET
IN A HURRY AND THIS NECESSITATED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS OF SBA COUNTY. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST.

SOME INSTABILTIY SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THEN
THE DRIER NW FLOW WILL CUT OFF THE RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED...
GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EC THROUGH 120 HOURS AND FORECAST LOOKS
DRY AND WARMER WITH NW FLOW AND AN ACTUAL RIDGE ON SATURDAY. FORECAST
A LITTLE MURKY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A CUT OFF LOW MEANDERING OFF THE
COAST. WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THIS FOR NOW AND WATCH TO SEE HOW IT
DEVELOPS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
FLOOD ADVISORY (SEE LAXFLSLOX)
WINTER STORM WARNING (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
FLOOD WARNING (SEE LAXFLWLOX).
FLASH FLOOD WARNING (SEE LAXFFWLOX).

&&

RORKE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
600 AM PST SUN JAN 9 2005

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-101400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
600 AM PST SUN JAN 9 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
PRECIPITATION...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE.

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING........SEE WGUS56 KLOX - FFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* RIVER FLOOD WARNING........SEE WGUS46 KLOX - FLWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WINTER STORM WARNING.......SEE WWUS46 KLOX - WSWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FLOOD WATCH................SEE WGUS66 KLOX - FFALOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE FZUS56 KLOX - CWFLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WET SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL SURGE SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONDAY AND MOVE OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY. FOLLOWING THE TROUGH PASSAGE DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
WILL SHIFT EAST AND PERSIST UPSTREAM. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

* WINTER STORM WARNING.......SEE WWUS46 KLOX - WSWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FLOOD WATCH................SEE WGUS66 KLOX - FFALOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FORWOOD