Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Chicago, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
310 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

.DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON ZONES/GRIDS...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONCENTRATE ON NEXT 6 HOUR PERIOD AND
POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT ACROSS
ALL OF CWA UNTIL 8 PM. MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CONTINUES TO
APPROACH NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS AIDED IN
CONVECTIVE INVITATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN ADVANCE OF
COLD FRONT TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. 18Z
SOUNDING FROM ILX SHOWING VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
FAIRLY LARGE LOW AND MID LEVEL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. PLENTY OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 55 KNOTS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION BUT LCLS APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH IN
THE 4-5K FOOT RANGE. WITH THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SB CAPES
APPEAR TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH FLOODING NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A BIG CONCERN GIVEN VERY STRONG STEERING FLOW WITH
THE STORMS. DO HAVE SOUTH WINDS BRUSHING UP AGAINST WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN WARM SECTOR BUT EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH A BIT WITH
SOME WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WILL NOT ISSUE WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME WITH EXPECTATION WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF TO
JUST UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY THIS EVENING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. DID KEEP RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH COLDER MID LEVEL TEMP AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE NORTH. NAM 850 HPA WINDS STILL UP IN THE 35 KNOT
RANGE TOMORROW WITH DECENT MIXING SO MAY ONCE AGAIN BRUSH UP AGAINST
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL HOLD WITH WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE TOMORROW. MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WITH EXCEPTION OF ADDING -SHRA CHANCES FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROUGH TO APPROACH.

NDM

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...EXPECTING A SQUALL LINE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. VFR CIGS AND VIS UNTIL
THE TSRA. MVFR TO IFR EXPECTED WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. BEHIND
THE LINE, MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. TODAYS SFC WINDS WILL HOLD OUT OF THE SSE WITH GUSTS TO
30 KTS VEERING TONIGHT BEHIND THE TSRA TO THE SW THEN WEST
TOMORROW. EXPECTING A WINDY DAY AGAIN TOMORROW.

&&

.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IL...NONE.
.IN...NONE.
.LK MI...SMALL CRFT ADVSRY THRU THURS..

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
400 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>022-023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019
-311200-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DU PAGE-COOK-
LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-
LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
400 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS EVENING.

TORNADO WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 8
PM CST. THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL OVERSPREAD
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STORMS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
DIMINISH BY 8 PM CST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NOAA NWS
CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE WEBPAGE AT:

WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (LOWER CASE)

LMZ740>746-766-311200-
WINTHROP HARBOR IL TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
LAKE MICHIGAN-
400 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OPEN
WATERS THROUGH 8 PM CST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS THIS EVENING. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
DIMINISH BY AROUND 8 PM CST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY DUE TO
STRONG WINDS.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NOAA NWS
CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE WEBPAGE AT:

WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (LOWER CASE)

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