Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Chicago, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
245 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...

BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING THROUGH NRN IL IN AREA
THAT GOT PRETTY GOOD INSOLATION THE LAST FEW HOURS. DEWPOINTS OVER
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS ARE MARGINAL BUT THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD MOIST
AXIS ACROSS EAST HALF OF IL. THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA NEXT FEW HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LACK OF HEATING AND
AS UPPER LOW DROPS SE INTO INDIANA. DRYING OUT FRIDAY WITH RIDGING
ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES AREA. NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD BRING MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE COOLING THAN LAST 2 DAYS. NEXT SYSTEM COMING IN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND
DROPPING SE. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW AND
COLD POOL DROP SE ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
CLOUDINESS INTO MON AND TUE AS UPPER LOW WOBBLES AROUND NE STATES
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP IN FORECAST. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS
TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPS BUT LAKE
COOLING ALMOST EVERYDAY FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

ALLSOPP

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...GOOD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER TERMINALS TODAY. AS
SFC TROF FROM WI POKES SE INTO NRN IL. THIS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DROP
SOUTH AND EAST THRU TNGT. MRNG FORMATION OF LOW SC IN CNTRL IL
SHIFTING EAST NOW AND OPENING NRN IL TO DIURNAL HEATING. ALREADY
SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR DBQ. CUD BE SOME TSTMS POTENTIAL HERE BUT
EXPECT BETTER CAPES SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS THIS AFTN. AM
LEAVING TSTMS ACTIVITY OUT OF TERMINALS FOR NOW. WILL AMEND AS
DEVELOPMENT GETS UNDERWAY TO SEE COVERAGE AND LOCATION. APPEARS TO
BE FORMING ON LEADING EDGE OF AC SWINGING EAST ACROSS SRN WI NRN IL.
THIS WUD BE IN ORD VCNTY BTWN 2-3PM. SFC WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH BY
EVENING AS LOW DROPS SOUTH AND EAST. IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBY IN WI
SHUD MOVE OVER BORDER SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND MOVE INTO TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. AS HIGH BUILDS DOWN THRU WI/LK MICH FRIDAY...SHUD SEE
SOME DRYING TO LIFT IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS BY NOONTIME. THIS
QUESTIONABLE BUT WILL GO ALONG WITH ETA GUIDANCE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IL...NONE.
.IN...NONE.
.LK MI...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
400 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>022-023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019
-201100-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DU PAGE-COOK-
LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-
LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
400 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE... TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING UNTIL
ABOUT 900 PM. THE MAIN THREAT IS LARGE HAIL. WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM
WESTERN WISCONSIN TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE OVER THE
EAST HALF OF ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND THE LOW
MOVES SOUTHEAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE
NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (LOWER CASE)

LMZ740>746-766-201100-
WINTHROP HARBOR IL TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
LAKE MICHIGAN-
400 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING UNTIL
ABOUT 900 PM. THE MAIN THREAT IS LARGE HAIL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA NEAR SHORE WATERS FOR HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE
NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (LOWER CASE)

ALLSOPP

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