Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Chicago, IL

000 
WWUS53 KLOT 302149
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
348 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

ILC141-302215-
/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-050330T2215Z/

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 415 PM CST FOR
NORTHWESTERN OGLE COUNTY...

AT 328 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORRESTON...OR ABOUT 14
MILES WEST OF MOUNT MORRIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FORRESTON BY 350 PM CST...
  ADELINE BY 400 PM CST...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. SEVERE STORMS
CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING. IF A TORNADO IS
SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 4207 8991 4193 8971 4214 8938 4238 8962

$$

KREIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
310 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

.DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON ZONES/GRIDS...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONCENTRATE ON NEXT 6 HOUR PERIOD AND
POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT ACROSS
ALL OF CWA UNTIL 8 PM. MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CONTINUES TO
APPROACH NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS AIDED IN
CONVECTIVE INVITATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN ADVANCE OF
COLD FRONT TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. 18Z
SOUNDING FROM ILX SHOWING VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
FAIRLY LARGE LOW AND MID LEVEL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. PLENTY OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 55 KNOTS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION BUT LCLS APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH IN
THE 4-5K FOOT RANGE. WITH THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SB CAPES
APPEAR TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH FLOODING NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A BIG CONCERN GIVEN VERY STRONG STEERING FLOW WITH
THE STORMS. DO HAVE SOUTH WINDS BRUSHING UP AGAINST WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN WARM SECTOR BUT EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH A BIT WITH
SOME WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WILL NOT ISSUE WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME WITH EXPECTATION WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF TO
JUST UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY THIS EVENING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. DID KEEP RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH COLDER MID LEVEL TEMP AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE NORTH. NAM 850 HPA WINDS STILL UP IN THE 35 KNOT
RANGE TOMORROW WITH DECENT MIXING SO MAY ONCE AGAIN BRUSH UP AGAINST
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL HOLD WITH WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE TOMORROW. MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WITH EXCEPTION OF ADDING -SHRA CHANCES FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROUGH TO APPROACH.

NDM

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...EXPECTING A SQUALL LINE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. VFR CIGS AND VIS UNTIL
THE TSRA. MVFR TO IFR EXPECTED WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. BEHIND
THE LINE, MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. TODAYS SFC WINDS WILL HOLD OUT OF THE SSE WITH GUSTS TO
30 KTS VEERING TONIGHT BEHIND THE TSRA TO THE SW THEN WEST
TOMORROW. EXPECTING A WINDY DAY AGAIN TOMORROW.

&&

.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IL...NONE.
.IN...NONE.
.LK MI...SMALL CRFT ADVSRY THRU THURS..

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
100 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>022-023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019
-311200-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DU PAGE-COOK-
LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-
LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
100 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

TORNADO WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NOAA NWS
CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE WEBPAGE AT:

WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (LOWER CASE)

LMZ740>746-766-311200-
WINTHROP HARBOR IL TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
LAKE MICHIGAN-
100 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY DUE TO
STRONG WINDS.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NOAA NWS
CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE WEBPAGE AT:

WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (LOWER CASE)