Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2005

.SHORT TERM(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON):

MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM IS DEALING WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS
THE FA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING AND HAIL.

EXPECT A RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TONIGHT. THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ONCE THIS ACTIVITY CLEARS THE FA DURING FRIDAY...DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. ONLY MODEST CHANGES TO CURRENT
FORECAST TRENDS WERE NEEDED FOR THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FORMATION OF REX
BLOCK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER HIGH
IS EXPECT TO PERSIST NEAR THE LABRADOR STRAIT...WHILE A CLOSED LOW
IS EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS STAGNANT
PATTERN...AND WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COOL AIR...WHICH WILL DROP MONDAYS TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY
FROM THOSE OF SUNDAY.

GFS IS THE STRONGEST AND FARTHEST WEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE
CLOSED LOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RETROGRADING THE CENTER OF THE LOW
WESTWARD OVER NEW YORK. IF THIS VERIFIES...BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL TREND COOLER WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS. FOR NOW...FEEL THAT
ECMWF MODEL HAS BETTER...FARTHER EAST...HANDLE ON ULTIMATE POSITION
OF CLOSED LOW. FOLLOWING ECMWF CHOICE...WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS LOWER OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IN...NONE.
.KY...NONE.

&&

AB/JSD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1130 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2005

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-200830-
ADAIR KY-ALLEN KY-ANDERSON KY-BARREN KY-BOURBON KY-BOYLE KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-BULLITT KY-BUTLER KY-CASEY KY-CLARK IN-CLARK KY-
CLINTON KY-CRAWFORD IN-CUMBERLAND KY-DUBOIS IN-EDMONSON KY-
FAYETTE KY-FLOYD IN-FRANKLIN KY-GARRARD KY-GRAYSON KY-GREEN KY-
HANCOCK KY-HARDIN KY-HARRISON IN-HARRISON KY-HART KY-HENRY KY-
JEFFERSON IN-JEFFERSON KY-JESSAMINE KY-LARUE KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
MADISON KY-MARION KY-MEADE KY-MERCER KY-METCALFE KY-MONROE KY-
NELSON KY-NICHOLAS KY-OHIO KY-OLDHAM KY-ORANGE IN-PERRY IN-
RUSSELL KY-SCOTT IN-SCOTT KY-SHELBY KY-SIMPSON KY-SPENCER KY-
TAYLOR KY-TRIMBLE KY-WARREN KY-WASHINGTON IN-WASHINGTON KY-
WOODFORD KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBANY...BARDSTOWN...BEAVER DAM...
BOWLING GREEN...CAMPBELLSVILLE...COLUMBIA...CORYDON...CYNTHIANA...
DANVILLE...ELIZABETHTOWN...ENGLISH...FRANKFORT...FRANKLIN...
GEORGETOWN...GLASGOW...HARDINSBURG...HARRODSBURG...JAMESTOWN...
JASPER...JEFFERSONVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...LEITCHFIELD...LEXINGTON...
LOUISVILLE...MADISON...MOUNT WASHINGTON...MUNFORDVILLE...
NEW ALBANY...PARIS...RICHMOND...RUSSELLVILLE...SCOTTSVILLE...
SHELBYVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...STANFORD...TAYLORSVILLE...TELL CITY...
TOMPKINSVILLE...VERSAILLES...WINCHESTER
1130 AM EDT (1030 AM CDT) THU MAY 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CONTINUED A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED
OCCURRENCES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING POSSIBLE. THERE COULD WELL BE A
BREAK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING BETWEEN CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER TNGT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JSD

KYZ041>043-048-049-191845-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
145 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2005

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH
ACROSS FAYETTE COUNTY AND THE LEXINGTON METRO AREA. THIS STORM WILL
BRING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF FAYETTE COUNTY...EVENTUALLY MOVING ALONG THE
BOURBON AND CLARK COUNTY LINE. RADAR SHOWS RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO
AN INCH PER HOUR WITH THE STORM IN FAYETTE COUNTY. ANOTHER STRONG
STORM IS DEVELOPING IN NICHOLAS AND HARRISON COUNTIES AND IS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THIS STORM
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 45 MINUTES.

SCHOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
335 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             GREENSBURG              37.26N 85.50W
05/19/2005  0.88 INCH        GREEN              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES WERE ALSO REPORTED DOWN IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
            COUNTY.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
345 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     HAIL             CAMPBELLSVILLE          37.35N 85.35W
05/19/2005  0.75 INCH        TAYLOR             KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MRC