Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
255 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2005

.SHORT TERM...TNGT THRU TUE

THE EARLIER WATCH ISSUANCE BASED ON THE STORMS NOW EAST OF OUR CWA
MAY WORK OUT FOR LATER THIS AFTN WITH NEW CNVCTN FIRING ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE CDFNT FROM JUST WEST OF LOU TO JUST WEST OF BWG.
GREATEST AMS DESTABILIZATION STILL ACROSS SCNTRL FA ATTM WITH CAPES
OF 1000 TO 2000J/KG. SVR THREAT SHUD BE OVER ACROSS OUR ERN/SRN
COUNTIES BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE AS CDFNT AND UPR LVL IMPLSE PASS
THRU. SECONDARY SFC TROF AHEAD OF DEEPER UPR LVL TROF MOVG SEWD FROM
MID/UPR MSP VLY TO BE ACCOMPANIED JUST BY CLDS LATE TNGT AS DEEP
LAYERED MSTR MOVES OUT AHD OF IT. THIS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ATTM. UPR LVL TROF AXIS TO SWING THRU SUN WITH A GRADUAL
RELAXING OF NW FLO THRU TUE WITH RIDGE JUST UPSTREAM. SFC HI PRES TO
SETTLE OVER OH VLY BY MON WITH AXIS STILL EXTENDING INTO KY TUE...
RESULTING IN FAIR SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUN AND
MON...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUE.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM
FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

RUN TO RUN MODEL VARIATIONS CONTINUE WITH THIS PATTERN WITH THE GFS
AND GFS ENSEMBLE HAVING THE MOST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. WILL LEAN
MORE TOWARD GFS THIS FORECAST DUE TO ITS BETTER CONSISTENCY.

NORTHERN PART OF FA AREA IS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE WARM FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS OUT OF FORECAST.  BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS QUESTIONABLE ATTM AND WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES AND UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS WILL LEAVE MENTION OF
SHOWERS OUT FOR NOW.

WILL STAY CLOSER TO GFS ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPERATURES FOR MAXES AND
MINS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IN...NONE.
.KY...NONE.

&&

KIRKPATRICK/MBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1130 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2005

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-150830-
ADAIR-ALLEN-ANDERSON-BARREN-BOURBON-BOYLE-BRECKINRIDGE-BULLITT-
BUTLER-CASEY-CLARK-CLINTON-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DUBOIS-EDMONSON-
FAYETTE-FLOYD-FRANKLIN-GARRARD-GRAYSON-GREEN-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HARRISON-
HART-HENRY-JEFFERSON-JESSAMINE-LARUE-LINCOLN-LOGAN-MADISON-MARION-
MEADE-MERCER-METCALFE-MONROE-NELSON-NICHOLAS-OHIO-OLDHAM-ORANGE-
PERRY-RUSSELL-SCOTT-SHELBY-SIMPSON-SPENCER-TAYLOR-TRIMBLE-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WOODFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LOUISVILLE...LEXINGTON...BOWLING GREEN...
WINCHESTER...VERSAILLES...STANFORD...SHELBYVILLE...RUSSELLVILLE...
RICHMOND...HARRODSBURG...HARDINSBURG...GLASGOW...FRANKLIN...
FRANKFORT...ELIZABETHTOWN...DANVILLE...CYNTHIANA...COLUMBIA...
BARDSTOWN...NEW ALBANY...JASPER AND CORYDON
1130 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM FRANKFORT TO BOWLING
GREEN. THIS WOULD INCLUDE ALL OF EAST CENTRAL AND MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. STORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
A FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

DK