Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
330 P[M EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...

AT MID AFTERNOON MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAD MOVED SOUTH OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. HOWEVER THE AIR REMAINED UNSTABLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MORE THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. THESE STORMS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
DROPPING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS THIS FORECAST WILL BE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS
AND ANY SHOWERS OCCURRING WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER SATURDAY.

MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM FOR FORECAST.

NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHOWERS NOW IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI BUT MAY BE ENDING THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN KY TOO
SOON. WILL HOLD ONTO HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
CENTRAL KENTUCKY BUT WILL START FORECAST WITH CHANCE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF FA. BAND OF STORMS IN MISSOURI HAS QUITE UNSTABLE
AIR BEHIND IT AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER. WILL
INCREASE POPS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS BY
DAYBREAK.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
BUT WILL DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT STORMS TO REDEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON IN THE UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER
THESE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED THAN THE STORMS IN THE MORNING THUS THE
LOWER POPS.

SOME BREAKS EXPECTED IN THE CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER AND MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS.
   - SCHOLZ

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

AFTER SATURDAY'S COOL FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CLEAR OUT BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO KATRINA.

MODELS HAVE BEEN SHAKY FROM DAY TO DAY WITH THEIR KATRINA SOLUTIONS
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT 12Z ECMWF AND GFS INITIALIZED BEST WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE STORM NORTH OF KEY WEST. AFTER COMPARING
GEM...ECMWF...NOGAPS...NHC...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND OPERATIONAL
GFS...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD CLUSTERING WITH THE MODELS...THE MEDIAN
OF WHICH IS FARTHER WEST THAN YESTERDAY'S SOLUTIONS. THE ONLY REAL
OUTLIER IF THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH IS WILDLY DIFFERENT FROM THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...SO NOT CONFIDENT IN THE OPERATIONAL'S SOLUTION.
THE EUROPEAN INITIALIZED WELL...IS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT...AND IS NEAR
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HOWEVER...WITH THE WAY THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN JUMPING BACK AND FORTH EAST-WEST...STILL DON'T WANT
TO BUY INTO THE ECMWF WHOLE-HOG. SO WILL PREFER A TRACK JUST
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE ECMWF...WHICH IS ABOUT 120 MILES WEST OF
THE 15Z NHC FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN THE STORM CENTER RIDING UP THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...WHICH UNFORTUNATELY WILL STILL BE TOO FAR
EAST TO GET WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS TO CENTRAL KENTUCKY HOWEVER WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO EASTERN
SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY LEXINGTON AND THE BLUEGRASS. FOR NOW WILL HAVE
SCATTERED POPS IN THE EAST...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DATA AND
FUTURE FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

STILL LOOKING GENERALLY DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RIDGING
BUILDING IN.

13

&&

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IN...NONE.
.KY...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
400 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-270800-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
400 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS EVENING
AS AND AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE
REGION. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
515 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

INZ076-083-084-089-KYZ023>026-262215-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-CRAWFORD IN-DUBOIS IN-HANCOCK KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-
ORANGE IN-PERRY IN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEAVER DAM...ENGLISH...HARDINSBURG...
JASPER...TELL CITY
515 PM EDT (415 PM CDT) FRI AUG 26 2005

...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS APPROACHING NORTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

A LINE OF STORMS...SOME PRODUCING SEVERE WIND DAMAGE...IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE WABASH AND OHIO VALLEYS AT 35 TO 40 MPH. THIS LINE WILL
ENTER THE AREA AROUND 500 PM CDT.  THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...PEA TO
QUARTER SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES NEARING TWO INCHES PER HOUR.
THE LINE OF STORMS WILL REACH JASPER AND HAWESVILLE AREAS NEAR 515
CDT...TELL CITY...PAOLI AND ENGLISH AREAS AROUND 545 PM
CDT...AND HARTFORD AND HARDINSBURG AREAS BY 600 PM CDT.

SCHOTT