Severe Thunderstorm Warning 189, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
323 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...

POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...JUST BEHIND SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN TO CENTRAL KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT EXTENDS AN
OUTFLOW/WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY FROM FROM NORTHERN OHIO SW TO THE
BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI...ALONG WHICH CONVECTION HAS ALREADY FIRED.
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

A BROKEN LINE OF GENERAL TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ALREADY WANING ON THE SOUTHERN
PORTION. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING ISOLATED PULSERS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. GIVEN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASING
SHEAR...SPC HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL
7PM EDT...MAINLY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...IT SEEMS LIKE IT WOULD BE EXTREMELY ISOLATED AT BEST SINCE
THE BEST SHEAR RESIDES ACROSS NORTHERN IL/IN/OH. WOULD ONLY EXPECT
VERY HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH FOR THE MOST
PART. ASIDE FROM ISOLATED SEVERE...THE LINE IS DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD
SO PRECIP WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
PARKWAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. KEPT ONLY 40 POPS IN
GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
REGION. NAM SHOWS BOUNDARY THROUGH FORECAST AREA MIDDAY
SUNDAY...BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND COOLER AIR. HOWEVER...GFS IS
SLOWER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HAS SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG
BOUNDARY...PROGGING IT TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE CWA TOMORROW. WENT WITH
THE FASTER NAM SOLUTION BUT KEPT POPS OVER SOUTHERN CWA SUNDAY SINCE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET DIVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CWA. ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY GIVEN RESIDUAL MLCAPES OVER 2000 J/KG PLUS. HAVE POPS
ENDING LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HAVE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS NORTHERN CWA TOMORROW...WITH
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA LOW 90S.

AL

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IS DEALING WITH
MAX/MIN TEMP TRENDS OVER THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA CONTS TO SHOW A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING FROM THE CENTRL AND
NRN ROCKIES NNE INTO CNTRL CANADA...AND THEN SHIFTING SLOWLY
EWRD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY THE END OF THE PD. THIS SHOULD
EFFECTIVELY BLOCK ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS FROM IMPACTING THE REGION.

WITH THE ABOVE DISCUSSION IN MIND...WE ARE GOING WI A DRY FCST
DURING THIS PERIOD. DAILY TEMPS WILL DIP TO AT OR A LITTLE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN WARM BACK TO A
FEW DEGS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AB

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

.IN...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM EDT AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
THROUGH 7 PM EDT.
.KY...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM EDT FOR ALL OF KENTUCKY AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 7 PM EDT FROM TELL CITY TO LEXINGTON AND
POINTS NORTHWARD.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
330 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2005

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-210830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
330 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 90S. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES
FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A HEAT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65
MPH...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
HANCOCK COUNTY TO NICHOLAS COUNTY IN KENTUCKY...INCLUDING ALL SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA COUNTIES. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH 7 PM EDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

AL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2005

INZ090>092-KYZ024>034-038-061-202200-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-BULLITT KY-BUTLER KY-CLARK IN-FLOYD IN-GRAYSON KY-
HARDIN KY-HARRISON IN-HENRY KY-JEFFERSON KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-
OLDHAM KY-SHELBY KY-SPENCER KY-TRIMBLE KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEAVER DAM...CORYDON...ELIZABETHTOWN...
HARDINSBURG...JEFFERSONVILLE...LEITCHFIELD...LOUISVILLE...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...NEW ALBANY...SHELBYVILLE...TAYLORSVILLE
500 PM EDT (400 PM CDT) SAT AUG 20 2005

...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS APPROACHING THE AREA...

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NEAR SELLERSBURG...
TO FORT KNOX...TO NEAR ROUGH RIVER LAKE AT 5 PM EDT...WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD AT ABOUT 30 MPH THROUGH 6 PM EDT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. STORMS WILL AFFECT THE LOUISVILLE AREA THROUGH
6 PM EDT...ALONG WITH THE FORT KNOX BASE...AND MEADE...
BRECKINRIDGE...GRAYSON...AND OHIO COUNTIES.

MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH
RANGE...AND THESE WINDS MAY OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF ANY RAIN AND STORMS.
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO OCCUR. PEOPLE
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WILL WANT TO REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THESE
STORMS HAVE PASSED THE AREA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...
THEREFORE SOME STORMS COULD TURN SEVERE...WITH GUST GUSTS ABOVE 60
MPH IN THESE SEVERE STORMS. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND OTHER STATEMENTS.

CS

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