Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2005

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Louisville, KY

August 6, 2005Cumberland County, Kentucky

NWS Louisville, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 6, 2005, 2:01 PM CDT for Cumberland County, Kentucky. It was in force for 29 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Aug 6, 2005, 2:01 PM CDT (19:01 UTC)
Expired: Aug 6, 2005, 2:30 PM CDT
In force: 29 min
Issued by: NWS Louisville, KY
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Cumberland County, KY

The radar

The Nashville radar (KOHX), 121 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 131 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 583 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -153 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1363 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 6 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 27 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 11 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 6, 1:30 PM CDT, 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 6, 1:30 PM CDT, 31 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
230 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...

.THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO LIE FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL BRING LIGHT EAST WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY WILL REMAIN FIRMLY UNDER A 500MB RIDGE...WITH UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES WELL NORTH IN CANADA. VERY LIGHT WINDS FROM SURFACE
THROUGH 20000 FT MEANS A CONTINUATION OF RECENT STAGNANT WEATHER
PATTERN. ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION LEFT OVER FROM LATE AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LIKE YESTERDAY...STORMS THAT DO
FORM IN THE AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF RAIN ACROSS
ISOLATED AREAS THIS EVENING. FEEL THAT GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
LEFTOVER STORMS THIS EVENING WILL LIE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY. WILL ONLY GO ONLY ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE BLUEGRASS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA.
ELSEWHERE...WILL TAPER POPS DOWN FROM NEAR 30 EARLY IN THE EVENING
TO LESS THAN 20 AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS MISSISSIPPI DELTA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTH...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO LIE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALABAMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A HINT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND
NORTHEAST OF THIS LOW TOWARDS EASTERN TENNESSEE. ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST ACROSS KENTUCKY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.6 INCHES.  NO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OR SHORTWAVES EXPECTED
TOMORROW...SO ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
SOLELY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING. EXPECT 20 TO 30 PERCENT COVERAGE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT BEST.

.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT-SATURDAY)...

UPPER LOW ORIGINATING FROM GULF STATES FCST TO MIGRATE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY VICINITY SUN-MON. COULD BE SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS LASTING
INTO LATE SUN NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SRN KY. THIS WEAKNESS IN THE
500MB HEIGHT FIELD COUPLED WITH ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA
WILL HELP GENERATE SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION AGAIN MONDAY OVER THE FCST
AREA. HARD TO PIN DOWN AREAS THAT MAY HAVE BETTER CHANCES OVER
OTHERS...NAM 700MB LIFT IS LESS THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS AS ARE POP
NUMBERS IN GFS/NAM MOS. MAY TREND THAT WAY SLIGHTLY IN GRIDS FOR MON
AFTN/EVE. NAM FCST WET MICROBURST INDEX DOES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
PULSE-TYPE SEVERE STORMS ALONG/NORTH OF I-64 WHERE SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS IS ANTICIPATED. STORMS WOULD BE SLOW MOVING
PRODUCING SOME HVY RAIN IN SPOTS. SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT FOR TUE
AFTN/EVE AND WILL CONTINUE DIURNAL 30% POPS.

GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT LATEST ECMWF SHOW WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE
AREA GETTING PICKED UP BY FASTER WLY FLOW OVER NRN CONUS...SOMETIME
WED-THU TIMEFRAME. WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AFTN/EVE...BUT FAVOR A DRY FCST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GIVEN
SLIGHTLY LESS OPTIMAL ENVIRONMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING NOSING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SERN CONUS. EXTRAPOLATING THE ECMWF SHOWS A FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION BY SAT. GFS HAS THIS FEATURE BUT ITS FURTHER
NORTH AND SLOWER IN PROGRESSION...HOWEVER GFS SHOWS A SUBTLE UPPER
WAVE ROUNDING THE RIDGE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN BOTH THESE FEATURES...AM INCLINED TO
CONTINUE DRY FCST INTO FIRST 1/2 OF NEXT WEEKEND...BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH. CS

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

.IN...NONE.
.KY...NONE.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 6, 10:30 AM CDT, 3 hours 31 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Louisville, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 6, 2:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Monroe	33 min
Aug 6, 5:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Logan	45 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2005 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.