Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Louisville, KY

000 
WWUS53 KLMK 051807
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
206 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

KYC067-051815-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0148.000000T0000Z-050805T1815Z/
FAYETTE KY-
206 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 215 PM EDT FOR  
FAYETTE COUNTY...

AT 157 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME 
SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 OR 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR LEXINGTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH. THE STORM HAS 
WEAKENED SINCE THE WARNING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED...HOWEVER THERE IS 
STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY IN NORTHERN FAYETTE 
COUNTY WHERE A STRONG CELL STILL EXISTS.

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL WERE RECEIVED FROM THE LEXINGTON AREA.

LAT...LON 3816 8440 3809 8463 3798 8456 3792 8436

$$
CS

000 
WWUS53 KLMK 051813
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
212 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

KYC067-051822-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0148.000000T0000Z-050805T1815Z/
FAYETTE KY-
212 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR FAYETTE COUNTY EXPIRES AT 215 
PM EDT...

THE STORMS THAT EARLIER PRODUCED LARGE HAIL OVER LEXINGTON HAVE 
WEAKENED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA 
HOWEVER...PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS. WATCH FOR 
PONDING WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3816 8440 3809 8463 3798 8456 3792 8436

$$
CS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

.AFTERNOON UPDATE...WEAK COLD FRONT JUST NOW EASING SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA. ONLY INDICATION OF PASSAGE IS SUBTILE WIND SHIFT
TO NORTH. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. ALTHOUGH NO
CUMULUS HAS FORMED SO FAR...FEEL THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BASICALLY RIGHT
OVER NORTHERN CWA...LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT ATMOSPHERE MEANS THAT ANY
STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE SLOW MOVING. BRIEF INTENSE RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS UNDER ANY HEAVIER CELLS.

UPDATED GRIDS LOWER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO RAISED HIGHS TO THE
LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY...WHILE KEEPING UPPER 80S ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
MAIN FCST EMPHASIS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS DEALING WI THE SWRD MVMNT OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ITS IMPACT ON...CLOUDS...POPS AND TEMPS.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO FA TODAY AND
LIKELY CONT TO DRIFT SWRD AND STALL OUT IN AN E-W FASHION ACRS NRN
TN DURG TONIGHT. THE BROAD BUT WEAK FNTL ZONE SHOULD ACT AS A
TRIGGER FOR SCT TO BKN AREAS OF TRW TDA INTO TONIGHT...BUT WI SUCH
WEAK LOW LEVEL FEATURES...THE FNTL PCPN SHOULD CONT TO BE MOSTLY
DIURNAL IN NATURE. HOWEVER...THE SLOW CELL MOVEMENTS COULD MEAN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SCATTERED AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.

SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP AND POP TRENDS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT REALLY STILL MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE ONGOING
FORECAST TRENDS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...THERE SHOULD BE A NICE DEWPOINT
GRADIENT ACROSS CWA SATURDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GENERATING
NORTHEAST WINDS THAT SHOULD BRING MID 60 DEWS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA...WHILE LOW 70S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
WHILE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS LATTER
AREA WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING ISLD/SCT AFT/EVEN
STORMS...SO LEFT THE LOW POPS IN THE GRIDS AS IS.

SAME SCENARIO ON SUNDAY EXCEPT MOISTURE SEEMS TO REBOUND NORTHWARD
WITH GOOD SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...SO PREVIOUS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
POPS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL CWA SUNDAY. THIS SOUTHERLY
GULF AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POOL INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING APPROACHES REGION FROM THE WEST. WENT WITH
MAINLY AFTERNOON TO EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR ENTIRE CWA THESE THREE
DAYS.

MODELS DEPICT THE WEAK TROUGH DEEPENING A BIT AND TRAVERSING THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY...STILL THINK
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH THIS MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SPARK AFT/EVE PULSERS AGAIN ACROSS ENTIRE CWA...SO
INSERTED 30 POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK (THURSDAY AND FRIDAY)...STRONG PLAINS RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO REGION. WITH 850 TEMPS PUSHING THE 20 DEGREE CELSIUS
MARK...AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES NEAR 1420M...THESE NUMBERS SHOULD
YIELD MID 90S FOR HIGHS. WAS A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT IN
CASE RIDGING IS SLOWER TO MOVE INTO REGION THAN EXPECTED. BUT WENT
AT LEAST 3 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ENSEMBLE HIGHS FOR NOW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

.IN...NONE.
.KY...NONE.

&&

AB/AL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1111 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-061515-
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON-
FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-OHIO-GRAYSON-HARDIN-
BULLITT-OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-FRANKLIN-SPENCER-ANDERSON-
WOODFORD-FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-NELSON-MERCER-JESSAMINE-LARUE-
MARION-BOYLE-GARRARD-MADISON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-GREEN-TAYLOR-
CASEY-LINCOLN-LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-METCALFE-
ADAIR-RUSSELL-CUMBERLAND-CLINTON-
1103 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005 /1003 AM EST FRI AUG 5 2005/ /1003 AM
CDT FRI AUG 5 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THIS FRONT COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO BE SLOW
MOVING...THEREFORE COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 45 OR 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER STORMS...THOUGH NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RESIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THEN AS
GULF MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

CS