Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
130 PM PDT TUE AUG 2 2005

.SYNOPSIS...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE LATER IN THE
WEEK WILL AGAIN BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH
OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION HAS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF THE CWA TODAY.
STILL UNSTABLE EXTREME EASTERN NEVADA...PARTICULARLY THE ERN HALF OF
WHITE PINE...ELKO...AND NRN NYE COUNTIES WITH LIS OF NEG 1-4 AND CAPE
VALUES AROUND 300-1000 J/KG. VIS SAT SHOWING CU DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA CURRENTLY. NOT EXPECTING THE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE AREA AS SEEN
YESTERDAY AS PWS ARE ABOUT HALF BUT 1 OR 2 STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. WATER VAPOR INDICATES S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE ID NV
BORDER...SHOULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
THIS EVENING AS WELL.

RIDGE TO BUILD BACK INTO NEVADA LATER THIS WEEK BRINGING WITH IT
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. ALSO MOISTURE UNDER THE 5H
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WORK BACK TO THE NORTH. MODELS SHOWING
MOISTURE INITIALLY AT 5H AND VERY DRY BELOW...MAY ONCE AGAIN HAVE
TO WATCH THE DAYTIME DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL. BUMPED POPS AND CLOUD
COVER DOWN SOME AS MODELS BACK OFF ON THE RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE
UNTIL NEXT WEEK. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CENTER
OF RIDGE OVER NEVADA...HOWEVER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ECMWF HAS BEEN
SHOWING TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE PAC NW WITH GFS HOLDING WITH THE
RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

LIEBL