Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
220 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005

.DISCUSSION...
AVN/GFS AND ETA MODELS SIMILAR FOR FIRST 18 HOURS. THEREAFTER ETA
SHOWS 500MB SHORT WAVE DEEPENING AND SLOWING DOWN OVER SOUTHWEST LA
WHILE GFS TRACKS THE TROUGH EASTWARD. THE ETA HANGS THE SYSTEM UP
OVER LA WITH A NEGATIVE TILT AXIS TUEDSAY NIGHT AND TRACKS THE
TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MS WEDNESDAY. WITH NEXT LOW MOVING
INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AM EXPECT THIS TO HELP
KICK THE TROUGH OVER LA/MS EASTWARD SIMILAR TO GFS SOLUTION...BUT
WILL ADD POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY TO COVER THE EVENTUALITY OF A SLOWER
MOVEMENT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LEFT AS IS.
AREAS IN SOUTHEAST LA AND SOUTHERN MS HAVE RECEIVED OVER 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN THE LAST 18 HOURS WITH A FEW SPOTS RECORDING OVER 5
INCHES. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW ANOTHER IMPULSE BEING EJECTED
EASTWARD. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS NEAR 2 INCHES OVER THE CWA
AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WILL ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STILL LOOK GOOD
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  69  83  66 /  90  80  60  20
BTR  84  71  86  68 / 100  70  60  20
MSY  85  74  85  73 /  90  80  70  20
GPT  82  70  82  70 /  90  80  70  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOW WATCH...ALL SE LA PARISHES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...SOUTHWEST AND EXTREME SOUTH MS COUNTIES.
SE LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1020 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

LAZ049-050-300425-
ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-
1020 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING ASCENSION AND LIVINGSTON
PARISHES...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ACROSS ASCENSION PARISH FROM
DONALDSONVILLE TO GONZALES TO PRAIRIEVILLE AND IN LIVINGSTON
PARISH FROM DENHAM SPRINGS TO THE TOWN OF LIVINGSTON WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT AREAS ACROSS THESE PARISHES THROUGH 1130 PM CDT. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN THAT MAY RESULT IN STREET FLOODING AND
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS.

11

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1223 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005

LAZ063-064-068>070-300645-
LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST BERNARD-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST BERNARD-
1223 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING COASTAL AREAS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS OF ST. BERNARD...
PLAQUEMINES...AND JEFFERSON PARISHES THROUGH 2 AM CDT. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
REMAIN NEAR THE COAST AND MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

11

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