Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
350 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS TO OUR
N. AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINS ACROSS SC TX. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NE ACROSS
THE SE TX COAST TONIGHT AND INTO THE SE LA/S MS COAST. EXIT STAGE RIGHT
DISTURBANCE #1 ENTER BAM...#2 BY EARLY MORNING. WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE PATTERN
TONIGHT FOR STORMS TO FILL IN TONIGHT LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHING AS WILL HAVE A DECENT JET COMING AROUND THE S SIDE OF THE
LOW TONIGHT. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH SCATTERED POPS FOR THIS EVENING WITH
INCREASING CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT NOT MUCH BREAK WITH ONE SYSTEM
AFTER ANOTHER MOVING ACROSS IN THE UPPER FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK ALONG A FRONT
THAT SHOULD STALL OUT OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY. THE FAUCET IS ON...COULD
CONTINUE TO GET SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS THROUGH THE WEEK AS THIS AIR MASS REMAINS
ON THE JUICY SIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  82  70  82 /  70  90  60  70
BTR  71  83  72  83 /  70  90  60  70
MSY  74  85  73  84 /  70  90  60  70
GPT  73  83  73  83 /  50  90  60  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
SE LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
254 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>065-MSZ077-080-292200-
ASCENSION LA-ASSUMPTION LA-EAST BATON ROUGE LA-EAST FELICIANA LA-
HANCOCK MS-IBERVILLE LA-LIVINGSTON LA-ORLEANS LA-PEARL RIVER MS-
POINTE COUPEE LA-ST. CHARLES LA-ST. HELENA LA-ST. JAMES LA-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST LA-ST. TAMMANY LA-TANGIPAHOA LA-
UPPER JEFFERSON LA-UPPER LAFOURCHE LA-UPPER PLAQUEMINES LA-
UPPER ST. BERNARD LA-UPPER TERREBONNE LA-WASHINGTON LA-
WEST BATON ROUGE LA-WEST FELICIANA LA-
254 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA...

A VERY UNSTABLE AND UNSETTLED AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE TEXAS COAST CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

AT 254 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING FROM
LIVONIA TO BATON ROUGE TO NEAR NEW ORLEANS. OTHERS WERE RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING FROM MANDEVILLE TO CENTRAL HANCOCK COUNTY MISSISSIPPI.
MEANWHILE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A DISTINCTIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS NEAR VICTORIA
TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO
MEMORIAL DAY.

IN THE SHORT-TERM EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
FROM MOST OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH CAN BE GENERATED AND SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO FALL FROM SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS. TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY...SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGER HAIL AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. RAINFALL MAY PERSIST CONSIDERABLY LONGER AND POSE
A MINOR FLOOD THREAT FROM TRAINING EFFECTS.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

24

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
316 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 PM     TORNADO          15 N KILN               30.63N 89.43W
05/29/2005                   HANCOCK            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SIGHTING OF A BRIEF TOUCHDOWN AND LIFTED BACK UP NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 603 AND 53 NEAR NECAISE.

0308 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 NE DESTREHAN          30.01N 90.31W
05/29/2005                   ST. CHARLES        LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SPOTTED BY MOTORIST FROM THE I-310 BRIDGE LOOKING
            NORTHEAST. REPORTED AS DECENDING THEN LIFTED.

&&

RICKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
410 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             LIVINGSTON              30.50N 90.75W
05/29/2005  0.88 INCH        LIVINGSTON         LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            RELAYED PUBLIC REPORT FROM WAFB-TV BATON ROUGE.

&&

RICKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
419 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     TORNADO          GULFPORT                30.39N 89.07W
05/29/2005                   HARRISON           MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF A POSSIBLE TOUCHDOWN NEAR THE LONG BEACH AND
            GULPORT CITY LIMITS.

&&

RICKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
428 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNT HERMAN            30.96N 90.30W
05/29/2005                   WASHINGTON         LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTS OF TREES DOWN AND BARN ROOF BLOWN OFF IN THE
            PLEASANT HILL ROAD AREA. RELAYED BY WDSU-TV
            METEOROLOGIST.

&&

RICKS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
509 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

LAZ040-292245-
ST TAMMANY-
509 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING ST TAMMANY PARISH...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 12 WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS ST TAMMANY PARISH THROUGH 6 PM. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN AS THEY AFFECT AREAS AROUND SLIDELL...
MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON AND PEARL RIVER.

11